Bundesliga · Matchday 8 
Our pick2–1Correct result
One point and one place separate these sides — a decisive edge on the line in the Bundesliga clash
FSV Mainz 05 and SV Elversberg sit level on 10 points after seven games, split only by goal difference and one position in the table. This match at Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde promises a razor-thin margin to settle who takes the upper hand.
📍 Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde
Preview written:
Match report
SV Elversberg beat FSV Mainz 05 4-1. Felix Keidel opened the scoring in the seventh minute, then Francis Onyeka made it 2-0 in the 26th minute, assisted by David Mokwa. Maurice Krattenmacher added a third in first-half stoppage time. Cole Campbell scored in the 90th minute with Nicholas Mickelson providing the assist. Benedict Hollerbach pulled one back for Mainz two minutes later, before Stefan Posch was sent off in the 90+5th minute.
Elversberg had 54% possession and registered six shots on target to Mainz’s two. Mainz led the corner count 11-5, while the teams’ expected goals were 1.02 and 1.21 respectively. F. Keidel was the top-rated player, with an 8.2 rating. The 4-1 result differed from the pre-match model’s predicted 2-1, which gave Elversberg a 40% chance of winning, a 22% chance of a draw and Mainz a 38% chance.
Goals
- 7'Felix Keidel · SV Elversberg
- 26'Francis Onyeka · David Mokwa · SV Elversberg
- 45+1'Maurice Krattenmacher · SV Elversberg
- 90'Cole Campbell · Nicholas Mickelson · SV Elversberg
- 90+2'Benedict Hollerbach · FSV Mainz 05
Cards
- 4'Phillipp Mwene · FSV Mainz 05
- 33'Danny da Costa · FSV Mainz 05
- 75'Ransford Königsdörffer · FSV Mainz 05
- 85'Stefan Posch · FSV Mainz 05
- 90+5'Stefan Posch · FSV Mainz 05
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: F. Keidel (SV Elversberg) 8.2
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
SV Elversberg
- 20N. KristofG
- 31M. RohrD
- 19L. PinckertD
- 26L. SirchD
- 21L. GüntherD
- 8Ł. PorębaM
- 40Francis-Ikechukwu OnyekaM
- 7M. KrattenmacherM
- 43F. KeidelM
- 25L. PetkovF
- 42D. MokwaF
Coach: V. Wagner
FSV Mainz 05
- 27R. ZentnerG
- 19A. CaciD
- 21D. da CostaD
- 2P. MweneD
- 4S. PoschD
- 48K. PotulskiD
- 10N. AmiriM
- 8P. NebelM
- 6K. SanoM
- 9P. TietzF
- 23S. BeckerF
Coach: U. Fischer
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| SV Elversberg | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | -3 | 10 |
Last meetings
- 2023SV Elversberg0-1FSV Mainz 05
- 2021SV Elversberg2-2FSV Mainz 05
Absences
SV Elversberg
- OutT. Zimmerschied · Ankle Injury
- DoubtfulN. Darvich · Hamstring Injury
- DoubtfulJ. Gyamerah · Thigh Injury
- DoubtfulL. Seifert · Ankle Injury
FSV Mainz 05
- OutD. Kohr · Foot Injury
- OutSilas · Broken shinbone
- DoubtfulN. Amiri · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulO. Ruoppi · Knee Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.90 – 1.83
- Double chance
- 12 · 78%1X 62% · X2 60%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%Over 1.5: 89% · Over 3.5: 51%
- Both teams score
- 72%
- Clean sheet
- 16% – 15%SV Elversberg–FSV Mainz 05
- Half-time result
- 1 · 34%X 34% · 2 32%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 25%2/2 23% · X/1 12%
- Expected corners
- 10.54.9 – 5.6 · Over 9.5: 59%
- Expected cards
- 4.01.9 – 2.1 · Over 3.5: 55%
- Most likely scores
- 1-19%
- 2-18%
- 1-28%
- 2-27%
- 3-15%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A table gap no bigger than goal difference
Both teams arrive level on 10 points after seven Bundesliga rounds, Mainz seventh with a +3 goal difference and Elversberg eighth with −3. With the table tightly packed this early in the season, the winner will gain not just three points but a psychological edge in a campaign where fine margins matter.
Recent rhythms that matter
Form figures are similarly close. Elversberg’s sequence reads WWLDLWL across the season, producing 12 goals but conceding 15 and struggling for clean sheets. Over their last five matches they’ve scored five and shipped ten, highlighting defensive vulnerability late in games (7 of 15 goals conceded came between 76-90 minutes). Mainz have alternated results in DWLWLWL, scoring freely — 16 in seven matches — but also leaking chances, conceding 13. In their last five Mainz have been more prolific, with 11 goals and an attack that looks likelier to find the net on the break and in the final quarter-hour.
Small H2H sample, Mainz with the edge
Their recent head-to-heads are limited to DFB-Pokal ties: a 0-1 loss for Elversberg in 2023 and a 2-2 draw in 2021. Those results favour Mainz marginally, continuing a pattern of tight encounters between the clubs.
Availability and squad questions
Elversberg will be without T. Zimmerschied (ankle) and arrive with several players questionable: N. Darvich (hamstring), J. Gyamerah (thigh) and L. Seifert (ankle). Mainz miss D. Kohr (foot) and Silas (broken shinbone), while N. Amiri and O. Ruoppi are listed as questionable with knee problems. Those absences could influence selection flexibility on both flanks and in midfield control.
Who could tilt the balance
Elversberg’s home scoring rate has been notable — eight goals at home — and their tendency to strike early (four goals in the opening 15 minutes this season) could unsettle Mainz. Mainz, meanwhile, have been dangerous late and have the higher away scoring average (3.3 per away game), suggesting they will test Elversberg’s defence deep into the match. With key creative figures on both sides doubtful, set-pieces and moments from substitutes may decide the outcome.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model expects a tight, attacking game with chances for both sides and favours a narrow home win. Elversberg’s ability to score early at home combined with Mainz’s defensive inconsistencies points to a 2-1 victory for the hosts, a result that would nudge them above their rivals in the table and hand a small but meaningful edge heading into the next round.
SV Elversberg 2-1 FSV Mainz 05
⚑ Report a mistakeEditorial policy
Bundesliga table All previews that day
More Bundesliga previews
Bundesliga 
Bayer Leverkusen 
VfB Stuttgart Our pick2–1Missed
Bayer Leverkusen’s stronger start and home record make them favourites, but recent head-to-head results show VfB Stuttgart can unsettle them. A high-scoring contest could give the visitors a route into the game.
Read preview Bundesliga 
Borussia Mönchengladbach 
SC Paderborn 07 Our pick1–0Missed
Borussia Mönchengladbach have lost six of their first seven league matches and need a result to climb the standings. Paderborn arrive with the stronger recent form, but Gladbach’s attacking output offers a route to a narrow home win.
Read preview Bundesliga 
FC Augsburg 
SC Freiburg Our pick2–1Missed
Third-placed Freiburg arrive four points ahead of ninth-placed Augsburg, with both sides scoring freely but recent form favouring the visitors. Augsburg’s home record and the teams’ recent meetings point to a close contest.
Read preview Bundesliga 
FC Schalke 04 
RB Leipzig Our pick0–1Correct result
FC Schalke 04 have a chance to move up from 16th, but face an RB Leipzig side with a stronger start and a clear edge in recent meetings.
Read preview