Sudan and Senegal meet with four points between them

A four-point gap

Senegal are four points above Sudan after three Group J matches, making this a chance for the leaders to widen the gap or for Sudan to close it. Senegal have seven points and top the four-team group; Sudan are third on three.

Senegal’s scoring edge

In three Africa Cup of Nations qualifying matches, Sudan have scored three goals and conceded eight; Senegal have scored six and conceded two. Senegal’s two away matches in the competition have brought a win and a draw, with two goals scored and one conceded. Sudan, by contrast, won their only home qualifying match, scoring once and keeping a clean sheet.

That home result is a reason not to overlook Sudan, but the broader three-match comparison favours Senegal. A pattern to watch is whether Sudan can keep Senegal’s scoring down as they did at home, or whether the visitors’ stronger overall scoring and defending show again.

Senegal lead the recent meetings

Senegal are unbeaten in the last five meetings, with three wins and two draws; Sudan have not won any of them. The latest meeting, in this qualifying competition on 12 November, ended in a Senegal win.

Our prediction

Senegal’s stronger scoring and defensive record in this competition, along with their unbeaten away record across two matches, gives them the edge. Sudan’s home clean sheet offers a plausible route to a draw, so an away win is not assured.