Serbia 1–3 Germany

Serbia’s growing pressure

Serbia have little room for another setback when Germany visit Belgrade on Friday. Four defeats in a row have left them fourth of four in League A, with no points from four matches and a goal difference of -5. Germany are third, five points above them, so the gap is already substantial with the group campaign moving into its fifth round.

The pressure is sharpened by Serbia’s home record in this competition: they have lost both matches there, scoring twice and conceding four. Germany, meanwhile, need to build on a steadier campaign and keep their position above their hosts.

Contrasting competition form

These figures cover four matches in the Nations League only, not either side’s wider season. Serbia have lost all four, scoring three goals and conceding eight, and have yet to keep a clean sheet.

Germany have collected a win, two draws and a defeat across their four matches, scoring three and conceding two. Their latest outing ended in a draw. Away from home in the competition, both of their matches have also finished level, with one goal scored and one conceded.

A recent German advantage

The last three meetings have produced one win for each side and a draw, with all three featuring two goals or fewer. The latest came in October, when Germany beat Serbia 2-0 in the Nations League. That result gives the visitors a recent reference point, though the broader head-to-head record remains even.

Players in the spotlight

No individual players are identified for this fixture, so the focus falls on Serbia’s collective response. They need to find a way to turn home pressure into goals while tightening a defence that has conceded eight times in four competition matches.

Germany’s lower goals-against total and two clean sheets in the competition offer a more settled platform. If they keep Serbia at arm’s length, the visitors can make the hosts’ need for a result work in their favour.

Our prediction

Germany have the edge because they have been harder to score against and arrive five points ahead, while Serbia’s four-match losing run leaves them under pressure. A draw remains a credible alternative, particularly given Germany’s two away draws in this competition, so the visitors’ advantage is a cautious one.