Bulgaria 0–5 Iceland

Four points between them

Iceland have conceded just once in four UEFA Nations League matches, a defensive record that underlines the challenge facing Bulgaria in Plovdiv. Iceland lead League C, Group D with eight points, while Bulgaria are third on four: a four-point gap separates the sides with two matches played by each.

That makes this a meeting of top-four sides with different immediate aims. A Bulgaria result would help them stay in touch with the group leaders; victory for Iceland would widen their advantage. Iceland also have a goal difference of +6, compared with Bulgaria’s -2.

Iceland arrive unbeaten

Iceland are unbeaten in four matches in this competition, with two wins and two draws. They have scored seven goals and conceded one, and their most recent outing ended in a draw. Away from home in the Nations League, they have taken a win and a draw, scoring three times without conceding.

Bulgaria’s four competition matches have brought a win, a draw and two defeats. They have scored three and conceded five, though their most recent Nations League match was a victory. At home in this competition, Bulgaria have drawn once and lost once, scoring one goal and conceding two.

Iceland won the latest meeting

The sides’ only listed meeting came in October, when Iceland beat Bulgaria 3-0 in the Nations League. Iceland have therefore won that encounter, with Bulgaria yet to claim a win or draw against them in the recorded head-to-head.

Defensive work in focus

Iceland’s record of one goal conceded across four competition matches, including two away clean sheets, gives them a clear defensive platform. Bulgaria will need to find a way through while protecting against an Iceland side that has scored seven times in the same span.

Our prediction

Iceland have the edge after an unbeaten run, stronger scoring output and a much tighter defence, though a draw remains a plausible outcome. Bulgaria’s recent competition win offers encouragement, but Iceland’s away resilience makes them the more likely side to take something from Plovdiv.