La Liga · Matchday 12 
Our pick Home win Correct result
Recent meetings point to another open Real Sociedad-Rayo contest
The last five meetings have produced two draws and three decisive results, with the latest ending 3-3. Real Sociedad’s stronger home record gives them an edge, but Rayo Vallecano have often made this matchup difficult.
📍 Anoeta Stadium
Preview written:
All Matchday 12 matches Full head-to-head
Match report
Final result: Real Sociedad 1-0 Rayo Vallecano.
Match statistics (home team first). Shots: 17–11; Shots on target: 3–3; Corners: 7–6; Expected goals: 1.5–1.41.
Goals
- 67' Orri Steinn Óskarsson · Ander Barrenetxea · Real Sociedad
Cards
- 34' Georgiy Tsitaishvili · Rayo Vallecano
- 50' Igor Zubeldia · Real Sociedad
- 61' Benat Turrientes · Real Sociedad
- 88' Gnangoro Bouare · Rayo Vallecano
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: O. Óskarsson (Real Sociedad) 8.2
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Real Sociedad · 4-4-2
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 2J. AramburuD
- 5ZubeldiaD
- 6Jon MartínD
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 24L. SučićM
- 8Beñat TurrientesM
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 7BarrenetxeaM
- 14T. KuboF
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
Coach: P. Matarazzo
Rayo Vallecano · 4-3-3
- 25E. AuderoG
- 2A. RațiuD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 6P. CissM
- 8Unai LópezM
- 19Jorge de FrutosF
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 14G. TsitaishviliF
Coach: Beñat San José
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.5 | 2.0 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 0 | 19 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | -5 | 12 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Sociedad
- 2025 Real Sociedad 0-1 Rayo Vallecano
- 2025 Rayo Vallecano 2-2 Real Sociedad
- 2025 Real Sociedad 3-1 Rayo Vallecano
- 2024 Real Sociedad 1-2 Rayo Vallecano
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.73 – 1.36
- Double chance
- 12 · 75%1X 71% · X2 54%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%Over 1.5: 82% · Over 3.5: 37%
- Both teams score
- 62%
- Clean sheet
- 26% – 18%Real Sociedad–Rayo Vallecano
- Half-time result
- X · 38%1 36% · 2 26%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 28%2/2 17% · X/1 15%
- Expected corners
- 11.87.2 – 4.6 · Over 9.5: 72%
- Expected cards
- 5.52.3 – 3.2 · Over 3.5: 79%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A gap to defend
Rayo Vallecano arrive in San Sebastian in 12th place, seven points and seven positions behind fifth-placed Real Sociedad, although they have played one fewer league match. Their latest league result was a win, while the hosts come off a defeat. Real Sociedad have taken 19 points from 11 matches; Rayo have 12 from 10.
Different recent rhythms
The hosts have won four of their last five league matches, scoring 14 goals and conceding nine. Their broader record is six wins, a draw and four defeats, and at home they have three wins, one draw and one defeat across five games. Rayo’s last five league outings have brought two wins, two draws and a defeat, with seven goals scored and six conceded. Their away record is less convincing: two draws and three defeats in five trips, with 13 goals conceded and no clean sheets.
Meetings rarely settle quietly
The recent head-to-head record cautions against assuming Real Sociedad will have an easy afternoon. Across the last five meetings in all competitions, Rayo have won twice, Real Sociedad once, and two games have been drawn. Only one of those five produced two goals or fewer. The latest encounter, in April, finished 3-3 at Rayo. The teams also drew 2-2 in March 2025, while their most recent meeting at Anoeta in the league ended in a 0-1 Rayo win. Real Sociedad did beat Rayo 3-1 in the Copa del Rey in January 2025, but the overall pattern suggests another competitive, potentially goal-filled match.
The attacking clues
Real Sociedad have scored 14 times across their last five league matches, giving them a strong attacking platform. Rayo, meanwhile, have conceded 13 goals in five away league games, though their recent overall defensive record is tighter, with six conceded in their last five.
Our prediction
The recent meetings make a close contest plausible, but Real Sociedad’s stronger position, home results and recent scoring form provide the clearest case for the hosts. PreviaXI’s model also leans towards a home win, while Rayo’s history of scoring against Sociedad points to the visitors getting on the board. Real Sociedad 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
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