Portugal 1–4 Denmark

Portugal can clinch first place in Braga

Portugal host second-placed Denmark in Braga on Saturday with 12 points from four matches, six more than their visitors. Portugal have already reached the quarter-finals. A draw or win secures first place with a match to spare. A Danish win would narrow the gap to three points with one round left. UEFA’s Group A4 scenarios

Portugal’s momentum, Denmark’s mixed run

Portugal have won all four of their UEFA Nations League matches, scoring nine goals and conceding four. They have also won both of their home matches in this competition, with three goals scored and one conceded.

Denmark’s record is less consistent: two wins and two defeats in four Nations League matches, with seven goals scored and seven conceded. Their latest result was a win, as was Portugal’s, so both arrive with a positive result behind them. These competition records cover four matches in the Nations League, rather than either side’s overall season form.

Portugal have had the edge

Portugal have won three of the last four meetings, with Denmark winning once and no draws. Their most recent encounter came in October, when Portugal won 4-2 away from home. That result also fits the recent pattern of goals between the sides: only one of the four meetings had two goals or fewer.

Portugal’s attacking threat

Portugal’s nine goals across their four Nations League matches point to a side capable of making its winning run count in Braga. Denmark have scored seven in the same number of games, but have also conceded seven, leaving Portugal with an opportunity to press a defence that has been more vulnerable than their own.

Our prediction

Portugal’s home form, group position and recent head-to-head record give them the edge. Denmark won their latest match and could keep the contest close.