Parma's leaky defence has shipped 15 goals in eight games — can they climb out of the drop zone?

Parma’s relegation fight: what’s at stake

Parma are 19th in Serie A with four points from eight matches and a goal difference of -10. The most alarming figure is the 15 goals they have conceded already — a run that leaves them deep in the relegation zone with home form offering scant comfort: only one win and one draw from four games at the Ennio Tardini.

A positive result is crucial if Parma are to begin climbing the table before the league splits into its long winter grind. With the season still in its opening phase, every point at home is magnified for a side with such a negative goal return.

Recent trend that matters

Form tells a bleak story. Parma’s last five domestic games show only one win and generally poor returns, with four goals scored in five matches and an average of 0.8 goals per game in that span. Defensively they have been porous, conceding 11 across their last five and 15 in the season — figures that underline a fragile back line late in matches (half of their five season goals arrive after the 76th minute, but they also concede heavily across the 61–90 range).

Udinese’s season is similarly rocky: they sit 17th with four points and a -9 goal difference, and their recent form reads as a long losing run. Across their last five matches they have scored four and shipped 13, producing an identical lack of consistency to Parma.

Recent head-to-head between these clubs

The recent meetings favour Udinese. In the last five Serie A encounters, Udinese have won three, Parma one, and there was one draw. Their most recent meeting in April ended Parma 1-0 away at Udinese, but earlier results include a 2-0 Udinese win in Parma and a narrow 1-0 home victory for Udinese last season.

Absences shaping the line-ups

Parma will be without N. Elphege (illness) and L. Valenti (coach’s decision). Udinese are missing several players: D. Alaba (calf), V. Bayo (thigh), I. Gueye (ankle) and O. Solet (muscle); A. Zanoli is listed as questionable with a muscle issue. Those absences erode Udinese’s options but have not halted Parma’s defensive struggles.

Who could decide the game

With both teams struggling to score consistently — Parma averaging 0.6 goals per match this season and Udinese 1.1 — set pieces and tight defensive moments will be decisive. Parma need a clean sheet to change momentum, while Udinese must cope without multiple squad members and rely on a slightly better expected-goals profile to nick a result.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model identifies a narrow, low-scoring game as most likely and favours an away success by the smallest margin. Udinese’s marginally higher expected goals and the fact both clubs have been conceding heavily make a tight 0-1 outcome the likeliest. Expect a tense, defensive contest where a single goal separates survival hopes.

Parma 0-1 Udinese