Palmeiras Hold the Edge Against Fluminense in Libertadores Semi-Final

Palmeiras sit second in Group F with 11 points from six matches and a goal difference of +5, the stronger record of the two sides heading into this semi-final. Fluminense, second in Group C on 8 points, have a goal difference of zero, and their route to the final now runs through Sao Paulo.

Palmeiras protect a narrow lead, Fluminense must chase it

This is a knockout tie where the first leg already shaped the story. Fluminense lost 2-1 at home to Palmeiras a week earlier, which means the visitors arrive with the advantage. For Palmeiras, a place in the final is within reach if they keep the game under control. For Fluminense, anything short of a win leaves them chasing, and every goal they concede will feel heavier.

Palmeiras’ steadier run

Palmeiras’ season form reads DWDWLWDWWDW, and in their last five games they have scored eight and conceded five. Fluminense have been less consistent, with a season sequence of DLLDWWDWWLL and a last five that brings two wins, a draw and two defeats. Their recent results have produced six goals and five conceded, so both attacks have been ordinary rather than dominant.

Palmeiras’ recent edge

Palmeiras have won three of the last five meetings, including a 2-1 victory in February and a 2-1 win over Fluminense in July 2025 (1-2 in Fluminense’s favour is not the case there; Palmeiras took that one too). Fluminense’s answer came in August, when they won 3-2, and the sides also drew 0-0 in November. The pattern suggests small margins and few easy goals.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model favours Palmeiras, and the football backs that up: they have the sharper attacking edge, a narrow advantage to protect, and a home crowd at Nubank Parque. Fluminense will have to take risks to score, which could open the game late, but Palmeiras should have enough control to finish the job.

Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense