Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.: Libertadores semi-final tied after a goalless first leg

Only one of these sides will reach the Libertadores final, and after a goalless first leg there is little to separate them.

A place in the final on the line

Flamengo arrive as the stronger side on paper. They sit top of the standings with 16 points from six matches and a goal difference of +12, while Estudiantes are second on 9 points with a difference of +1. Progressing means a place in the final, and the Maracanã crowd will expect their side to make the most of home advantage.

Flamengo’s home record and Estudiantes’ steady defence

Flamengo have not lost a match this season, winning six and drawing four. Their home form is especially strong: four wins and a draw from five games, with 11 goals scored at the Maracanã-style home fixtures. They have kept five clean sheets in ten games overall, and in their last five they have scored six while conceding three.

Estudiantes have been harder to beat than their record suggests. Across 11 matches they have won four, drawn six and lost once, and their defence has been tight recently, conceding just two goals in their last five. Their away record is also solid, with two wins and two draws from five trips.

Head-to-head: two home wins and a split

The last five meetings have been finely balanced. Flamengo won both of their home fixtures, 2-1 in September 2025 and 1-0 in May 2026. Estudiantes won their home game in September 2025 by the same 1-0 margin, and the other two matches ended in draws, 1-1 in April and 0-0 in the first leg of this tie.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model favours Flamengo, and the football backs that up. Flamengo’s home record and attacking output give them the edge, but Estudiantes have been difficult to break down, so this looks likely to be tight and cagey rather than open. A narrow home win, with Flamengo’s control of the ball eventually forcing a breakthrough, seems the most likely outcome.

Flamengo 1-0 Estudiantes L.P.