2–2 Full time Saturday 24 October

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Leuven vs Lommel: why July's 5-1 won't settle Saturday

OH Leuven beat Lommel United 5-1 in a friendly this summer, but the competitive history between the clubs is far more evenly balanced. Lommel arrive higher in the table and with the better away record.

📍 Den Dreef

All Matchday 9 matches

Match report

OH Leuven and Lommel United drew 2-2 in Round 9 of the Jupiler Pro League. Lommel United took the lead in the 35th minute, when S. Appuah scored with an assist from D. Konadu. OH Leuven turned the match around after the restart: R. Mirisola scored in the 65th minute, assisted by W. Balikwisha, and E. Addai made it 2-1 in the 67th minute, assisted by D. Opoku. Lommel United struck again in the 90+6th minute through J. van Duiven, assisted by S. Nypan. No red cards were shown.

Lommel United had more of the ball, 57% to 43%, but OH Leuven created the more dangerous chances, with 22 shots to 13, 6 on target to 4, and an xG of 3.43 against 0.97. OH Leuven also won 7 corners to 5. Siebe Schrijvers was the top-rated player with a 8.3 rating. Compared with the pre-match model, which predicted a 0-1 away win with probabilities of 31% home, 28% draw and 41% away, the 2-2 draw was a different outcome.

Goals

35'S. Appuah · D. Konadu · Lommel United
65'R. Mirisola · W. Balikwisha · OH Leuven
67'E. Addai · D. Opoku · OH Leuven
90+6'J. van Duiven · S. Nypan · Lommel United

Cards

12'T. Ogiwara · OH Leuven
40'S. Adewoye · Lommel United
45+2'S. Appuah · Lommel United
71'R. Mirisola · OH Leuven

Match stats

OH LeuvenLommel United

43%Possession57%

22Shots13

6Shots on target4

3.43Expected goals (xG)0.97

7Corners5

16Fouls12

2Offsides1

2Saves3

⭐ Top-rated player: Siebe Schrijvers (OH Leuven) 8.3

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

OH Leuven · 3-4-3

1Dani van den HeuvelG
28Ewoud PletinckxD
5Jamie LawrenceD
34Roggerio NyakossiD
99Davis OpokuM
6Wouter GeorgeM
8Siebe SchrijversM
26Takuya OgiwaraM
21William BalikwishaF
18Robin MirisolaF
24Łukasz ŁakomyF

Lommel United · 4-2-3-1

23Matthias PieklakG
2Jason van DuivenD
3Timothy EyomaD
14Jesper TolinssonD
4Shawn AdewoyeD
15Lucas SchoofsM
6Joey PelupessyM
7Juho TalvitieM
41Sverre NypanM
11Stredair AppuahM
9Don-Angelo KonaduF

Match facts

Recent form

OH LeuvenLLDWD

Lommel UnitedWLLDW

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
OH Leuven	0.8	1.8
Lommel United	1.1	1.1

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
10	Lommel United	8	0	11
15	OH Leuven	8	-8	5

Last meetings

2026OH Leuven5-1Lommel United
2020OH Leuven3-0Lommel United
2019Lommel United3-2OH Leuven
2019Lommel United0-2OH Leuven
2019OH Leuven1-0Lommel United

PreviaXI model

OH Leuven31%Draw28%Lommel United41%

Predicted score: 0-1
Expected goals (model): 1.10 – 1.31
Double chance: 12 · 72%1X 59% · X2 69%
Over 2.5 goals: 43%
Both teams score: 49%
Expected corners: 11.97.0 – 4.9 · Over 9.5: 74%
Expected cards: 4.02.3 – 1.7 · Over 3.5: 55%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

The most recent meeting between these sides was a 5-1 win for OH Leuven in a friendly this July, but that result tells little about what awaits at Den Dreef on Saturday. The competitive history is more balanced. In the four competitive meetings from 2019 and 2020, Leuven won three and Lommel one, and that one came at home, a 3-2 win in December 2019.

Lommel’s cushion against Leuven’s deep hole

Lommel sit 10th in the 18-team Pro League with 11 points from eight matches, and their goal difference is level. Leuven are 15th with five points and a goal difference of -8. For Leuven, this is a game to start digging out of the bottom third, while Lommel have a chance to press on from a comfortable mid-table position.

Leuven’s leaky defence and Lommel’s away record

Leuven have won once in eight league matches this season, drawn twice and lost five times. They have scored six goals and conceded 14, and five of those concessions have come between the 76th and 90th minutes, a pattern that has cost them late in games.

Lommel have a more even profile, with three wins, two draws and three defeats, and they have scored nine and conceded nine. Their away form is the strongest part of their record: two wins, one draw and one defeat on the road, with just one goal conceded in the first 15 minutes of away matches. Their last five league results also show more resilience than Leuven’s.

The head-to-head lesson

The July friendly showed Leuven can score freely when everything clicks. The competitive meetings suggest a tighter contest. Leuven won the 2019 and 2020 fixtures that were decided by a single goal or a clear margin, but Lommel have shown they can beat them when the stakes are real. A friendly score rarely carries weight in a league table, and that is the lesson for Saturday.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model favours Lommel United, and the football behind that lean is convincing. Leuven have struggled to keep clean sheets and have conceded late too often, while Lommel have been the more reliable side away from home and have been less exposed defensively. We expect a tight, low-scoring game in which Lommel’s away discipline makes the difference.

OH Leuven 0-1 Lommel United

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