Mozambique 0–1 Ethiopia

Mozambique’s chance to widen the gap

Ethiopia travel to Maputo needing points to keep within reach of Mozambique in Group J of Africa Cup of Nations qualifying. Mozambique are second of four with four points after two matches, while Ethiopia are fourth with none. The sides are separated by four points, so a home win would widen the gap; an Ethiopia response would help them stay in touch.

Contrasting starts in the group

Mozambique have taken a win and a draw from their two matches in this competition, scoring five goals and conceding two. Their most recent qualifying match was a win.

Ethiopia’s four-match record in the competition stands at two wins and two defeats, with four goals scored and two conceded. Their latest match ended in defeat, and they are on a run of two consecutive losses. In their two away qualifying matches, Ethiopia have won once and lost once, scoring three goals and conceding one.

A goalless recent meeting

The teams’ most recent meeting was a 0-0 draw in the African Nations Championship in January 2023. Their one recorded meeting ended level, with neither side winning.

What the competition records suggest

Mozambique have won once and drawn once in their two home matches in this qualifying campaign, scoring five goals and conceding two. Ethiopia’s away record in the competition is one win and one defeat across two matches.

Our prediction

Ethiopia’s recent run makes a recovery difficult to call, while Mozambique have the advantage of a stronger Group J position and a positive latest result. The match still looks uncertain: a draw or an Ethiopia result are plausible, so Mozambique’s home edge does not make a win assured.