Cape Verde Islands 4–2 Liberia

A meeting at the foot of Group K

Liberia arrive in Praia in fourth place in Group K, level with Cape Verde Islands on zero points after two matches. Both sides have a goal difference of -3, with Cape Verde one place higher on a tie-breaker. With each team already having lost twice, this third group-stage match offers an opportunity to change the picture at the bottom of the standings.

Two defeats apiece in this competition

Cape Verde Islands have lost both of their Africa Cup of Nations qualification matches, scoring twice and conceding five. Liberia have also suffered two defeats, scoring once and letting in four. Those figures cover two matches in this competition only, rather than either side’s wider season form. Neither team has kept a clean sheet in the group.

Cape Verde hold the recent head-to-head edge

Cape Verde Islands won both of the sides’ last two meetings, with no draws or Liberia victories. The most recent was a 1-0 Cape Verde win in October 2021, in World Cup qualifying. That record gives the home side a positive reference point, though the meetings came in a different competition.

A chance to steady the defence

Both teams have conceded regularly in this group, and neither has managed a clean sheet. Cape Verde’s five goals conceded across two matches make defensive improvement an obvious priority; Liberia, meanwhile, have scored only once in the same span. The side that better controls the match without the ball could make a significant step towards its first points.

Our prediction

Cape Verde Islands have the home setting and the stronger recent head-to-head record, so they carry a slight edge. But the likely outcomes remain close, and both teams’ defeats in this competition underline the uncertainty; a draw is a credible alternative to a narrow home advantage.