FA Cup · 1/128-finals 
Our pick Home win Correct result
Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town: League One edge meets Swindon’s cup threat
Milton Keynes Dons bring the stronger recent league run and a higher divisional standing into this FA Cup tie. Swindon Town will look to overturn that edge, with the recent head-to-head record also favouring the hosts.
📍 Stadium MK
Preview written:
Match report
Final result: Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 Swindon Town.
Match statistics (home team first). Shots: 10–5; Shots on target: 6–4; Corners: 3–4.
Goals
- 6' Marvin Ekpiteta · Charlie Goode · Milton Keynes Dons
- 13' Aaron Collins · Elijah Campbell · Milton Keynes Dons
- 45+1' Aaron Drinan · James Ball · Swindon Town
Cards
- 57' Anthony Munda · Swindon Town
- 81' Tom Nichols · Swindon Town
- 83' Jack Sanders · Milton Keynes Dons
- 90+1' Alex Gilbey · Milton Keynes Dons
Match stats
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Milton Keynes Dons · 3-5-2
- 1C. MacGillivrayG
- 21M. EkpitetaD
- 32J. SandersD
- 5C. GoodeD
- 17S. SilveraM
- 8A. GilbeyM
- 24R. WintleM
- 7D. CrowleyM
- 20Elijah Xavier CampbellM
- 10A. CollinsF
- 9S. NombeF
Coach: P. Warne
Swindon Town · 3-4-3
- 1C. RipleyG
- 6J. BallD
- 33Joel McGregorD
- 5S. NegruD
- 26D. ButlerM
- 2M. ClarkM
- 25J. ThomsonM
- 24M. Virtue-ThickM
- 23A. DrinanF
- 27A. MundaF
- 19J. SnowdonF
Coach: Ian Holloway
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Swindon Town | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Swindon Town 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons
- 2025 Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 Swindon Town
- 2025 Milton Keynes Dons 0-4 Swindon Town
- 2025 Swindon Town 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons
- 2024 Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 Swindon Town
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.92 – 1.18
- Double chance
- 1X · 77%12 77% · X2 46%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%Over 1.5: 82% · Over 3.5: 37%
- Both teams score
- 60%
- Clean sheet
- 31% – 15%Milton Keynes Dons–Swindon Town
- Half-time result
- 1 · 41%X 38% · 2 21%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 34%X/1 17% · X/X 13%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A divisional gap, but a close contest
A place in the next round is at stake as Milton Keynes Dons take on Swindon Town in the FA Cup first round. The sides come from different divisions: MK Dons are 12th in League One with 18 points after 13 matches, while Swindon are 13th in League Two with 19 points from 14.
That difference in league level gives the hosts a potential advantage, but the table positions suggest neither side is currently near the top of its division. Swindon’s slightly higher points total comes from having played one more match, while MK Dons arrive with the sharper recent league form.
MK Dons have the stronger run
Milton Keynes Dons have won four of their last five league games and lost the other, with their most recent match ending in a win. Swindon’s last five league outings have brought two wins, two draws and a defeat, also followed by a victory in their latest match.
The contrast is clear: MK Dons have been collecting wins more consistently, while Swindon have shared points more often. In a knockout tie, though, a single strong performance can quickly make that form gap less important.
Recent meetings favour the hosts
MK Dons have won three of the last five meetings in all competitions, with Swindon winning once and the other match drawn. Their most recent encounter, in March 2026 in League Two, ended in a 2-1 away win for MK Dons.
The history also points to the possibility of a competitive game rather than a runaway result: two of those five meetings had two goals or fewer. Swindon did beat MK Dons 4-0 in the EFL Trophy in November 2025, a reminder that the visitors have already shown they can punish them.
The key contrast
This tie pits MK Dons’ stronger recent run and League One status against a Swindon side capable of producing a decisive result in this matchup. The home side’s latest win and success in the most recent meeting make them the more convincing choice, but the previous 4-0 result warns against assuming the division gap will settle the contest.
Our prediction
MK Dons look better placed to control the game, with their more consistent run of league wins giving them the edge. Swindon have enough recent head-to-head evidence to threaten, but the home side’s advantage should carry them through.
Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 Swindon Town
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