Liga MX · Apertura - 16 
Toluca vs Monterrey: prediction, stats and form
Liga MX, Sunday 8 November. The PreviaXI model gives Toluca 58%, the draw 22% and Monterrey 20%, with a predicted score of 2-1. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.
All Apertura, matchday 16 matches
PreviaXI model
Toluca58%Draw22%Monterrey20%
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.03 – 1.12
- Double chance
- 1X · 80%12 78% · X2 42%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%Over 1.5: 83% · Over 3.5: 39%
- Both teams score
- 59%
- Clean sheet
- 32% – 13%Toluca–Monterrey
- Half-time result
- 1 · 43%X 37% · 2 20%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 37%X/1 17% · X/X 12%
- Expected corners
- 9.85.7 – 4.1 · Over 9.5: 51%
- Expected cards
- 4.32.1 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 61%
- Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 2-110%
- 2-09%
- 1-08%
- 3-17%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Toluca
- Power ratings: Toluca +0.69 goals per game (1st of 18 in Liga MX), Monterrey +0.16 (6th).
- Toluca's attack (1.83 goals per game) meets Monterrey's defence (1.42 conceded per game).
- Monterrey's attack (1.58) meets Toluca's defence (1.14).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 25% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 2.03 – 1.12 goals: Toluca 58%, draw 22%, Monterrey 20%.
Match facts
Last matches · Toluca
- D Sun 1 Nov A Club America 2-2
- D Sat 24 Oct A Leon 1-1
- D Thu 22 Oct H Club Tijuana 2-2
- D Sun 18 Oct H Atletico San Luis 1-1
- L Sat 10 Oct A Tigres UANL 2-3
- D Sat 26 Sept A Cruz Azul 3-3
Last matches · Monterrey
- D Sun 1 Nov H Club Tijuana 3-3
- L Sun 25 Oct H Guadalajara Chivas 0-1
- W Thu 22 Oct A Puebla 4-1
- W Mon 19 Oct H CF Pachuca 2-1
- D Sun 11 Oct A Club America 1-1
- L Sat 26 Sept A Atlante FC 2-4
Last 10 matches
| · | Toluca | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Conceded | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% |
Home and away record
| · | Toluca (H) | Monterrey (A) |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| Conceded | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% |
Home team: last 10 home games. Away team: last 10 away games.
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/18 | Toluca | 15 | +10 | 24 |
| 9/18 | Monterrey | 14 | +5 | 21 |
Last meetings
- 2026Monterrey 0-1 Toluca
- 2025Toluca 3-2 Monterrey
- 2025Monterrey 1-0 Toluca
- 2025Toluca 6-2 Monterrey
Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.