Serie A · Matchday 35 
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense: prediction, stats and form
Serie A, Friday 20 November. The PreviaXI model gives Sao Paulo 40%, the draw 30% and Fluminense 30%. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.
All Matchday 35 matches Full head-to-head
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Low
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.22 – 1.03
- Double chance
- Home win or draw70%Either team wins 70% · Draw or away win 60%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%Over 1.5: 67% · Over 3.5: 19%
- Both teams score
- 48%
- Clean sheet
- 36% – 30%Sao Paulo–Fluminense
- Half-time result
- X · 47%1 29% · 2 24%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 23%X/X 20% · 2/2 17%
- Expected corners
- 10.76.5 – 4.2 · Over 9.5: 57%
- Expected cards
- 5.02.5 – 2.5 · Over 3.5: 71%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Key trends
- 7 of Fluminense’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Fluminense’s last 8 away matches.
Chance to score
Sao Paulo
- J. Calleri16 goals in 45 games 30%
- Luciano15 goals in 45 games 29%
- Lucas Moura4 goals in 22 games 15%
Fluminense
- John Kennedy14 goals in 38 games 22%
- Hulk7 goals in 23 games 17%
- J. Savarino10 goals in 43 games 14%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | Sao Paulo | Fluminense | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 12-8-14 | 10-4-3 | 16-9-9 | 4-6-7 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.15 | 1.47 | 1.62 | 1.41 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.15 | 0.76 | 1.24 | 1.47 |
| xG per game | 1.35 | 1.63 | 1.39 | 1.13 |
| xG against per game | 1.15 | 1.00 | 1.19 | 1.26 |
| Scored in | 76% | 88% | 88% | 82% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 41% | 21% | 12% |
| Failed to score | 24% | 12% | 12% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 53% | 71% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 71% | 82% | 88% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 41% | 59% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 12% | 29% | 29% |
| Shots per game | 13.6 | 15.2 | 14.6 | 12.3 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.2 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 4.6 |
| Shots on target | 31% | 30% | 38% | 37% |
| Possession | 53% | 52% | 59% | 57% |
| Passes per game | 456.8 | 445.1 | 550.6 | 529.0 |
| Pass accuracy | 84% | 83% | 88% | 87% |
| Corners per game | 6.8 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per game | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.8 |
| Cards per game | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Fouls per game | 14.4 | 13.8 | 13.6 | 14.7 |
League matches this season (Serie A). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Sao Paulo
- 0-15 6 / 3
- 16-30 5 / 4
- 31-45 7 / 9
- 46-60 5 / 12
- 61-75 11 / 3
- 76-90+ 4 / 9
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Fluminense
- 0-15 4 / 7
- 16-30 9 / 1
- 31-45 9 / 5
- 46-60 8 / 10
- 61-75 6 / 9
- 76-90+ 19 / 10
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 35 | +4 | 51 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Vasco DA Gama | 34 | -5 | 44 |
| 12 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 13 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 35 | -9 | 41 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 34 | -37 | 21 |
Table as of
Next matches
Sao Paulo
- Tue 24 Nov Botafogo – Sao PauloSerie A
- Fri 27 Nov Sao Paulo – RemoSerie A
- Thu 3 Dec Atletico Paranaense – Sao PauloSerie A
Fluminense
- Mon 23 Nov Fluminense – MirassolSerie A
- Sat 28 Nov Fluminense – CruzeiroSerie A
- Thu 3 Dec RB Bragantino – FluminenseSerie A
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Sao Paulo 3 wins · 1 draws · Fluminense 6 wins
- 16/05/2026 Fluminense 2-1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 27/11/2025 Fluminense 6-0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 27/07/2025 Sao Paulo 3-1 FluminenseSerie A
- 01/09/2024 Fluminense 2-0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 13/05/2024 Sao Paulo 2-1 FluminenseSerie A
- 23/11/2023 Fluminense 1-0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 01/07/2023 Sao Paulo 1-0 FluminenseSerie A
- 05/11/2022 Fluminense 3-1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 17/07/2022 Sao Paulo 2-2 FluminenseSerie A
- 12/09/2021 Fluminense 2-1 Sao PauloSerie A
Match facts
Last matches · Sao Paulo
- D Thu 5 Nov H Corinthians 0-0
- L Thu 29 Oct A Bahia 2-3
- D Sat 24 Oct A Mirassol 1-1
- W Sun 18 Oct H Vasco DA Gama 1-0
- W Sun 11 Oct H Vitoria 2-1
- L Thu 8 Oct A Cruzeiro 0-2
Last matches · Fluminense
- W Fri 6 Nov A Vitoria 3-0
- W Wed 28 Oct H Internacional 2-1
- L Sat 24 Oct A Chapecoense-sc 1-2
- L Sun 18 Oct H Santos 1-2
- L Sun 11 Oct A Flamengo 0-1
- W Fri 9 Oct H Coritiba 4-0
Recent record
| · | Sao Paulo | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches in sample | 10 | 10 |
| Scored | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Conceded | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% |
Home and away record
| · | Sao Paulo (H) | Fluminense (A) |
|---|---|---|
| Matches in sample | 10 | 10 |
| Scored | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Conceded | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% |
Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.