Ligue 1 · Matchday 10 
Lens vs Marseille: prediction, stats and form
Ligue 1, Sunday 8 November. The PreviaXI model gives Lens 57%, the draw 20% and Marseille 23%, with a predicted score of 2-1. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.
PreviaXI model
Lens57%Draw20%Marseille23%
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.28 – 1.42
- Double chance
- 12 · 80%1X 77% · X2 43%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%Over 1.5: 89% · Over 3.5: 51%
- Both teams score
- 68%
- Clean sheet
- 24% – 10%Lens–Marseille
- Half-time result
- 1 · 44%X 34% · 2 22%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 37%X/1 16% · 2/2 13%
- Expected corners
- 9.45.4 – 4.0 · Over 9.5: 46%
- Expected cards
- 4.31.9 – 2.4 · Over 3.5: 63%
- Most likely scores
- 2-19%
- 1-18%
- 3-17%
- 2-26%
- 2-06%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Lens
- Power ratings: Lens +0.63 goals per game (2nd of 18 in Ligue 1), Marseille +0.27 (5th).
- Lens's attack (1.94 goals per game) meets Marseille's defence (1.55 conceded per game).
- Marseille's attack (1.82) meets Lens's defence (1.31).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 27% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 2.28 – 1.42 goals: Lens 57%, draw 20%, Marseille 23%.
Match facts
Last matches · Lens
- L Fri 30 Oct A Lille 0-1
- W Sat 24 Oct H Paris FC 2-1
- L Wed 21 Oct A Club Brugge KV 0-3
- W Sat 17 Oct A Estac Troyes 3-1
- L Tue 13 Oct H Sporting CP 0-2
- W Fri 9 Oct H Lyon 2-1
Last matches · Marseille
- W Sun 1 Nov H Toulouse 2-0
- W Sun 25 Oct H Le Havre 4-3
- L Thu 22 Oct A Sturm Graz 0-1
- W Sun 18 Oct A Angers 5-2
- L Thu 15 Oct H Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1
- W Sun 11 Oct A Estac Troyes 2-0
Last 10 matches
| · | Lens | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Conceded | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Points per game | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% |
Home and away record
| · | Lens (H) | Marseille (A) |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Conceded | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Points per game | 2.10 | 0.90 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% |
Home team: last 10 home games. Away team: last 10 away games.
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/18 | Lens | 9 | +3 | 13 |
| 6/18 | Marseille | 9 | +7 | 15 |
Last meetings
- 2026Marseille 3-1 Lens
- 2025Lens 2-1 Marseille
Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.