Serie A · Matchday 35 
Gremio vs Bahia: prediction, stats and form
Serie A, Thursday 19 November. The PreviaXI model gives Gremio 38%, the draw 27% and Bahia 35%. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.
All Matchday 35 matches Full head-to-head
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Low
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.43 – 1.39
- Double chance
- Either team wins73%Home win or draw 65% · Draw or away win 62%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%Over 1.5: 78% · Over 3.5: 31%
- Both teams score
- 54%
- Clean sheet
- 25% – 24%Gremio–Bahia
- Half-time result
- X · 41%1 30% · 2 29%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 22%2/2 21% · X/X 15%
- Expected corners
- 10.55.6 – 4.9 · Over 9.5: 57%
- Expected cards
- 5.72.9 – 2.8 · Over 3.5: 72%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Key trends
- Both teams scored in 6 of Gremio’s last 8 home matches.
- Gremio have scored in each of their last 6 matches.
- Bahia have not won in their last 4 away matches.
Chance to score
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius22 goals in 55 games 34%
- F. Amuzu6 goals in 43 games 13%
- C. Pavón5 goals in 41 games 12%
Bahia
- Luciano Juba11 goals in 34 games 27%
- A. Véliz4 goals in 15 games 21%
- Willian José6 goals in 27 games 18%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | Gremio | Bahia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-10-15 | 8-5-4 | 14-11-9 | 6-5-6 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.12 | 1.59 | 1.47 | 1.41 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.24 | 1.32 | 1.53 |
| xG per game | 1.05 | 1.35 | 1.53 | 1.47 |
| xG against per game | 1.62 | 1.48 | 1.39 | 1.65 |
| Scored in | 71% | 82% | 85% | 82% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 29% | 26% | 24% |
| Failed to score | 29% | 18% | 15% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 76% | 82% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 47% | 53% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 29% | 26% | 35% |
| Shots per game | 11.9 | 13.8 | 14.2 | 13.8 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Shots on target | 33% | 36% | 32% | 28% |
| Possession | 49% | 47% | 54% | 52% |
| Passes per game | 420.1 | 395.8 | 442.0 | 427.0 |
| Pass accuracy | 84% | 83% | 86% | 85% |
| Corners per game | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per game | 5.5 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 7.1 |
| Cards per game | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Fouls per game | 13.3 | 13.8 | 14.0 | 13.2 |
League matches this season (Serie A). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Gremio
- 0-15 2 / 2
- 16-30 4 / 10
- 31-45 10 / 8
- 46-60 10 / 8
- 61-75 6 / 12
- 76-90+ 6 / 7
Usual formation: 4-1-4-1
Bahia
- 0-15 6 / 5
- 16-30 7 / 8
- 31-45 16 / 10
- 46-60 3 / 6
- 61-75 5 / 9
- 76-90+ 13 / 7
Usual formation: 4-3-3
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 35 | +4 | 51 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Vasco DA Gama | 34 | -5 | 44 |
| 12 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 13 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 35 | -9 | 41 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 34 | -37 | 21 |
Table as of
Next matches
Gremio
- Tue 24 Nov Santos – GremioSerie A
- Mon 30 Nov Corinthians – GremioSerie A
- Thu 3 Dec Gremio – MirassolSerie A
Bahia
- Sat 21 Nov Bahia – CoritibaSerie A
- Sun 29 Nov Botafogo – BahiaSerie A
- Thu 3 Dec Bahia – Atletico-MGSerie A
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Gremio 3 wins · 4 draws · Bahia 3 wins
- 17/05/2026 Bahia 1-1 GremioSerie A
- 19/10/2025 Bahia 4-0 GremioSerie A
- 25/05/2025 Gremio 1-0 BahiaSerie A
- 17/08/2024 Gremio 0-2 BahiaSerie A
- 28/04/2024 Bahia 1-0 GremioSerie A
- 04/11/2023 Gremio 1-0 BahiaSerie A
- 12/07/2023 Gremio 1-1 BahiaCopa Do Brasil
- 05/07/2023 Bahia 1-1 GremioCopa Do Brasil
- 01/07/2023 Bahia 1-2 GremioSerie A
- 16/10/2022 Gremio 1-1 BahiaSerie B
Match facts
Last matches · Gremio
- L Wed 4 Nov A Flamengo 1-3
- W Fri 30 Oct H Atletico Paranaense 2-0
- W Mon 26 Oct A Coritiba 1-0
- L Sun 18 Oct H Cruzeiro 2-4
- D Sun 11 Oct H Internacional 1-1
- D Wed 7 Oct A Remo 1-1
Last matches · Bahia
- L Fri 6 Nov A Cruzeiro 2-3
- W Thu 29 Oct H Sao Paulo 3-2
- D Sun 25 Oct A Santos 1-1
- L Sun 18 Oct H Flamengo 0-3
- W Sun 11 Oct H Mirassol 1-0
- L Fri 9 Oct A Palmeiras 0-1
Recent record
| · | Gremio | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches in sample | 10 | 10 |
| Scored | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Conceded | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Points per game | 0.90 | 1.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% |
Home and away record
| · | Gremio (H) | Bahia (A) |
|---|---|---|
| Matches in sample | 10 | 10 |
| Scored | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Conceded | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% |
Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.