02:00 Tuesday 27 October Doha time

Flamengo vs Atletico-MG: prediction, stats and form

Serie A, Tuesday 27 October. The PreviaXI model gives Flamengo 66%, the draw 22% and Atletico-MG 12%, with a predicted score of 2-0. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.

All Matchday 32 matches Full head-to-head

PreviaXI model

Flamengo66%Draw22%Atletico-MG12%

Predicted score: 2-0
Expected goals (model): 1.92 – 0.70
Double chance: 1X · 88%12 78% · X2 34%
Over 2.5 goals: 49%Over 1.5: 74% · Over 3.5: 27%
Both teams score: 44%
Clean sheet: 49% – 15%Flamengo–Atletico-MG
Half-time result: 1 · 47%X 40% · 2 13%
Half-time / full-time: 1/1 · 42%X/1 21% · X/X 14%
Expected corners: 10.66.9 – 3.7 · Over 9.5: 61%
Expected cards: 4.52.1 – 2.4 · Over 3.5: 65%
Most likely scores: 2-013%
1-013%
1-110%
2-19%
3-09%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Why the model leans towards Flamengo

Power ratings: Flamengo +0.91 goals per game (1st of 20 in Serie A), Atletico-MG +0.07 (13th).
Flamengo's attack (1.79 goals per game) meets Atletico-MG's defence (1.17 conceded per game).
Atletico-MG's attack (1.24) meets Flamengo's defence (0.88).
Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 43% more goals.
Put together, the model expects 1.92 – 0.70 goals: Flamengo 66%, draw 22%, Atletico-MG 12%.

Power ratings: Serie A →

Absences

Flamengo

OutDanilo · Inactive
OutEvertton Araujo · Thigh Injury
OutG. de Arrascaeta · Wrist Injury

Atletico-MG

OutM. Cassierra · Injury
OutEverson · Foot Injury
OutFred · Injury
OutGustavo Scarpa · Muscle Injury
OutRuan Tressoldi · Muscle Injury

Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.

Chance to score

Flamengo

Pedro25 goals in 49 games38%
Lucas Paquetá13 goals in 37 games27%
Samuel Lino14 goals in 59 games20%

Atletico-MG

T. Cuello8 goals in 39 games9%
Bernard9 goals in 41 games9%
T. Borbas3 goals in 9 games9%

Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.

Trends

Flamengo have scored in each of their last 15 matches.
Flamengo have won their last 6 home matches.
Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 8 matches.
Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 8 home matches.
Atletico-MG are unbeaten in their last 6 matches.
Atletico-MG have scored in each of their last 6 matches.

Season stats

·	Flamengo		Atletico-MG
·	All	Home	All	Away
Won-drawn-lost	20-7-4	11-3-1	14-8-9	4-3-8
Goals scored per game	1.97	1.93	1.35	1.00
Goals conceded per game	0.81	0.67	1.13	1.20
xG per game	1.68	1.76	1.30	1.14
xG against per game	0.92	0.68	1.18	1.24
Scored in	94%	93%	71%	47%
Clean sheets	45%	53%	26%	20%
Failed to score	6%	7%	29%	53%
Both teams scored	48%	40%	48%	33%
Over 1.5 goals	90%	93%	68%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	61%	53%	48%	40%
Over 3.5 goals	19%	13%	29%	27%
Shots per game	15.0	17.6	13.5	12.0
Shots on target per game	5.2	5.7	4.5	3.9
Shots on target	35%	32%	33%	32%
Possession	57%	57%	49%	49%
Passes per game	548.6	567.6	414.2	413.0
Pass accuracy	88%	88%	82%	81%
Corners per game	5.5	6.3	5.3	4.5
Corners against per game	4.3	3.6	5.6	6.1
Cards per game	2.3	2.3	1.9	2.5
Fouls per game	11.9	12.5	11.6	12.2

League matches this season (Serie A). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.

When goals come

Flamengo

0-1512 / 1
16-305 / 3
31-454 / 3
46-6015 / 6
61-7512 / 3
76-90+13 / 9

Usual formation: 4-2-3-1

Atletico-MG

0-153 / 4
16-309 / 3
31-457 / 5
46-602 / 4
61-7510 / 8
76-90+10 / 12

Usual formation: 4-2-3-1

Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.

Serie A table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts	Recent form
1	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	61:25	+36	67	WWDWW
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54:22	+32	66	WWWDW
3	Cruzeiro	32	16	6	10	51:46	+5	54	WWLWW
4	Atletico Paranaense	32	15	9	8	50:38	+12	54	DLWDW
5	Fluminense	31	14	9	8	49:39	+10	51	LLWWL
6	Atletico-MG	31	14	8	9	42:35	+7	50	WWDWD
7	Bahia	31	13	10	8	44:39	+5	49	LWLLW
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	48:46	+2	45	WLDWW
9	Sao Paulo	32	12	7	13	37:36	+1	43	DWWLL
10	RB Bragantino	31	11	8	12	39:36	+3	41	DWDLL
11	Botafogo	32	10	9	13	44:51	-7	39	LWDLL
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38:49	-11	39	LDLLD
13	Vitoria	32	10	8	14	35:46	-11	38	DDLWL
14	Mirassol	32	9	10	13	37:45	-8	37	DWLDW
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	9	8	13	36:43	-7	35	LDWWW
16	Internacional	32	8	11	13	36:40	-4	35	WLDWL
17	Corinthians	31	8	9	14	32:39	-7	33	DLLLL
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	34:44	-10	31	LDDDL
19	Remo	32	5	11	16	34:50	-16	26	LDDDL
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	3	9	18	30:62	-32	18	LLLDL

Next matches

Flamengo

Fri 30 OctVasco DA Gama – FlamengoSerie A
Thu 5 NovFlamengo – GremioSerie A
Thu 19 NovFlamengo – Atletico ParanaenseSerie A

Atletico-MG

Fri 30 OctAtletico-MG – CruzeiroSerie A
Thu 5 NovBotafogo – Atletico-MGSerie A
Thu 19 NovMirassol – Atletico-MGSerie A

Head-to-head: last 10 meetings

Flamengo 6 wins · 2 draws · Atletico-MG 2 wins

26/04/2026Atletico-MG0-4FlamengoSerie A
26/11/2025Atletico-MG1-1FlamengoSerie A
06/08/2025Atletico-MG0-1FlamengoCopa Do Brasil
01/08/2025Flamengo0-1Atletico-MGCopa Do Brasil
27/07/2025Flamengo1-0Atletico-MGSerie A
13/11/2024Flamengo0-0Atletico-MGSerie A
10/11/2024Atletico-MG0-1FlamengoCopa Do Brasil
03/11/2024Flamengo3-1Atletico-MGCopa Do Brasil
04/07/2024Atletico-MG2-4FlamengoSerie A
29/11/2023Flamengo0-3Atletico-MGSerie A

Match facts

Last matches · Flamengo

W Sun 18 Oct A Bahia 3-0
W Sun 11 Oct H Fluminense 1-0
D Thu 8 Oct A Santos 2-2
W Sun 20 Sept H RB Bragantino 2-1
W Sun 13 Sept H Corinthians 2-1
W Sun 6 Sept A Remo 1-0

Last matches · Atletico-MG

W Sat 17 Oct H Coritiba 1-0
W Sun 11 Oct H Santos 2-1
D Thu 8 Oct A Atletico Paranaense 2-2
W Sat 3 Oct H RB Bragantino 1-0
D Sat 19 Sept H Chapecoense-sc 1-1
W Sat 12 Sept H Fluminense 3-1

Last 10 matches

·	Flamengo	Atletico-MG
Scored	2.2	1.5
Conceded	0.7	0.8
Points per game	2.50	2.10
Over 2.5 goals	70%	50%
Both teams score	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	0%	20%

Home and away record

·	Flamengo (H)	Atletico-MG (A)
Scored	1.8	1.0
Conceded	0.8	1.2
Points per game	2.30	1.20
Over 2.5 goals	60%	40%
Both teams score	40%	40%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	10%	50%

Home team: last 10 home games. Away team: last 10 away games.

Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.

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Serie A table All model predictions