Primeira Liga · Matchday 11 
Estrela vs Benfica: prediction, stats and form
Primeira Liga, Sunday 8 November. The PreviaXI model gives Estrela 13%, the draw 16% and Benfica 71%, with a predicted score of 0-2. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.
PreviaXI model
Estrela13%Draw16%Benfica71%
Model confidence: Strong
- Predicted score
- 0-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 0.91 – 2.37
- Double chance
- X2 · 87%1X 29% · 12 84%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%Over 1.5: 83% · Over 3.5: 41%
- Both teams score
- 53%
- Clean sheet
- 9% – 40%Estrela–Benfica
- Half-time result
- 2 · 52%1 14% · X 34%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 48%X/2 19% · X/X 9%
- Expected corners
- 10.02.6 – 7.4 · Over 9.5: 53%
- Expected cards
- 5.53.1 – 2.4 · Over 3.5: 75%
- Most likely scores
- 0-211%
- 1-210%
- 0-110%
- 0-38%
- 1-38%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Benfica
- Power ratings: Estrela -0.26 goals per game (12th of 18 in Primeira Liga), Benfica +1.31 (1st).
- Estrela's attack (1.27 goals per game) meets Benfica's defence (0.87 conceded per game).
- Benfica's attack (2.18) meets Estrela's defence (1.53).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 16% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 0.91 – 2.37 goals: Estrela 13%, draw 16%, Benfica 71%.
Match facts
Last matches · Estrela
- L Sat 31 Oct A Moreirense 1-2
- L Sat 24 Oct H Casa Pia 0-2
- L Sun 11 Oct A Arouca 0-1
- L Sun 20 Sept H Academico Viseu 0-2
- D Mon 14 Sept A Rio Ave 3-3
- W Thu 10 Sept H SC Braga 2-1
Last matches · Benfica
- W Mon 26 Oct A Santa Clara 2-1
- W Thu 22 Oct A Omonia Nicosia 4-1
- W Thu 15 Oct H Celtic 4-1
- W Sun 11 Oct H Vitória SC 2-0
- L Sun 20 Sept A FC Porto 1-3
- W Wed 16 Sept A AC Milan 2-0
Last 10 matches
| · | Estrela | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| Conceded | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 2.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams score | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% |
Home and away record
| · | Estrela (H) | Benfica (A) |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.3 | 2.8 |
| Conceded | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% |
Home team: last 10 home games. Away team: last 10 away games.
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/18 | Estrela | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 2/18 | Benfica | 9 | +18 | 22 |
Last meetings
- 2026Benfica 4-0 Estrela
- 2025Estrela 0-1 Benfica
Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.