Serie A · Matchday 32 Coritiba vs Gremio: prediction, stats and form
Serie A, Tuesday 27 October. The PreviaXI model gives Coritiba 47%, the draw 26% and Gremio 27%, with a predicted score of 1-0. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.
All Matchday 32 matchesFull head-to-head
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.61 – 1.16
- Double chance
- 12 · 74%1X 73% · X2 53%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%Over 1.5: 77% · Over 3.5: 30%
- Both teams score
- 55%
- Clean sheet
- 31% – 20%Coritiba–Gremio
- Half-time result
- X · 41%1 36% · 2 23%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 29%X/1 16% · X/X 16%
- Expected corners
- 9.65.0 – 4.6 · Over 9.5: 49%
- Expected cards
- 5.22.3 – 2.9 · Over 3.5: 75%
- Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 1-09%
- 2-19%
- 2-08%
- 0-07%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Coritiba
- Power ratings: Coritiba -0.32 goals per game (18th of 20 in Serie A), Gremio -0.28 (17th).
- Coritiba's attack (1.18 goals per game) meets Gremio's defence (1.48 conceded per game).
- Gremio's attack (1.20) meets Coritiba's defence (1.50).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 43% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.61 – 1.16 goals: Coritiba 47%, draw 26%, Gremio 27%.
Absences
Coritiba
- OutLucas Ronier · Knee Injury
- OutLucas Taverna · Inactive
- OutRichard · Inactive
- OutThiago Santos · Yellow Cards
Gremio
- OutJ. Cabral · Inactive
- OutJ. Nardoni · Inactive
- OutWalter Kannemann · Red Card
- DoubtfulDanilo Barbosa · Injury
- DoubtfulMatheus Nascimento · Inactive
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Coritiba
- Rodrigo Moledo3 goals in 8 games30%
- Breno Lopes8 goals in 29 games29%
- Pedro Rocha8 goals in 32 games28%
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius20 goals in 51 games28%
- F. Amuzu5 goals in 38 games10%
- C. Pavón5 goals in 40 games10%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Gremio have not won in their last 15 away matches.
- Gremio are unbeaten in the last 7 meetings with Coritiba.
- Gremio have not won in their last 7 matches.
- Coritiba have not won in their last 6 matches.
- 6 of Coritiba’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Gremio’s last 8 matches.
Season stats
| · | Coritiba | Gremio | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 10-9-12 | 5-5-5 | 7-10-14 | 0-5-10 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.23 | 1.33 | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.58 | 1.33 | 1.42 | 1.53 |
| xG per game | 1.04 | 1.00 | 1.03 | 0.70 |
| xG against per game | 1.48 | 1.26 | 1.62 | 1.75 |
| Scored in | 68% | 80% | 68% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 13% | 19% | 13% |
| Failed to score | 32% | 20% | 32% | 47% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 67% | 61% | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 73% | 74% | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 47% | 45% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 27% | 19% | 7% |
| Shots per game | 10.8 | 12.3 | 11.3 | 8.8 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Shots on target | 30% | 29% | 31% | 24% |
| Possession | 40% | 41% | 50% | 51% |
| Passes per game | 321.9 | 329.0 | 410.4 | 423.9 |
| Pass accuracy | – | – | 84% | 84% |
| Corners per game | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.3 |
| Corners against per game | 6.8 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.6 |
| Cards per game | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| Fouls per game | 10.6 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 12.5 |
League matches this season (Serie A). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Coritiba
- 0-152 / 4
- 16-304 / 9
- 31-458 / 5
- 46-608 / 8
- 61-757 / 13
- 76-90+7 / 12
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Gremio
- 0-152 / 2
- 16-304 / 8
- 31-456 / 6
- 46-6011 / 10
- 61-755 / 12
- 76-90+5 / 7
Usual formation: 4-1-4-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | +36 | 67 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | +32 | 66 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 31 | +3 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vitoria | 32 | -11 | 38 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 32 | -8 | 37 |
| 15 |  Vasco DA Gama | 30 | -7 | 35 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 31 | -7 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | -32 | 18 |
Next matches
Coritiba
- Fri 30 OctCoritiba – VitoriaSerie A
- Wed 4 NovInternacional – CoritibaSerie A
- Thu 19 NovCoritiba – SantosSerie A
Gremio
- Fri 30 OctGremio – Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- Thu 5 NovFlamengo – GremioSerie A
- Thu 19 NovGremio – BahiaSerie A
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Coritiba 1 wins · 2 draws · Gremio 7 wins
- 26/04/2026Gremio1-0CoritibaSerie A
- 01/11/2023Coritiba1-2GremioSerie A
- 25/06/2023Gremio5-1CoritibaSerie A
- 31/01/2021Coritiba1-1GremioSerie A
- 07/10/2020Gremio2-1CoritibaSerie A
- 15/10/2017Coritiba0-1GremioSerie A
- 23/06/2017Gremio2-0CoritibaSerie A
- 08/09/2016Coritiba4-0GremioSerie A
- 29/05/2016Gremio2-0CoritibaSerie A
- 30/08/2015Gremio0-0CoritibaSerie A
Match facts
Last matches · Coritiba
- L Sat 17 Oct A Atletico-MG 0-1
- D Mon 12 Oct H Botafogo 1-1
- L Fri 9 Oct A Fluminense 0-4
- L Sat 19 Sept A Vasco DA Gama 0-5
- D Sat 12 Sept H Atletico Paranaense 3-3
- L Sun 6 Sept H Mirassol 1-2
Last matches · Gremio
- L Sun 18 Oct H Cruzeiro 2-4
- D Sun 11 Oct H Internacional 1-1
- D Wed 7 Oct A Remo 1-1
- D Sun 20 Sept H Palmeiras 0-0
- L Wed 16 Sept A Botafogo 2-3
- L Sat 12 Sept H Vasco DA Gama 1-2
Last 10 matches
| · | Coritiba | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Conceded | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% |
Home and away record
| · | Coritiba (H) | Gremio (A) |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| Conceded | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 0.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams score | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 10% | 60% |
Home team: last 10 home games. Away team: last 10 away games.
Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.