Serie A · Matchday 36 
Bahia vs Coritiba: prediction, stats and form
Serie A, Saturday 21 November. The PreviaXI model gives Bahia 61%, the draw 22% and Coritiba 17%. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.
All Matchday 36 matches Full head-to-head
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: High
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.02 – 0.96
- Double chance
- Home win or draw83%Either team wins 78% · Draw or away win 39%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%Over 1.5: 80% · Over 3.5: 35%
- Both teams score
- 52%
- Clean sheet
- 38% – 13%Bahia–Coritiba
- Half-time result
- 1 · 45%X 38% · 2 17%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 40%X/1 19% · X/X 13%
- Expected corners
- 12.18.3 – 3.8 · Over 9.5: 62%
- Expected cards
- 4.62.1 – 2.5 · Over 3.5: 62%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Bahia
- Expected goals favour Bahia: 2.02 – 0.96.
Main uncertainty: the other two results still add up to 39%, led by a draw at 22%.
Built only from the model numbers above. For information; not a certainty. Power ratings: Serie A →
Key trends
- At least one side failed to score in 6 of Coritiba’s last 8 matches.
- Coritiba failed to score in 5 of their last 8 matches.
- At least one side failed to score in 6 of Coritiba’s last 8 away matches.
- Coritiba have not won in their last 4 away matches.
Chance to score
Bahia
- Luciano Juba11 goals in 34 games 36%
- A. Véliz4 goals in 15 games 29%
- Willian José6 goals in 27 games 25%
Coritiba
- Pedro Rocha9 goals in 35 games 19%
- Breno Lopes8 goals in 32 games 18%
- Rodrigo Moledo3 goals in 10 games 16%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | Bahia | Coritiba | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 14-11-9 | 8-6-3 | 11-9-14 | 5-4-8 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.47 | 1.53 | 1.18 | 1.06 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.32 | 1.12 | 1.50 | 1.76 |
| xG per game | 1.53 | 1.59 | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| xG against per game | 1.39 | 1.14 | 1.47 | 1.67 |
| Scored in | 85% | 88% | 65% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 29% | 21% | 24% |
| Failed to score | 15% | 12% | 35% | 47% |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 65% | 47% | 35% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 88% | 71% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 47% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 18% | 29% | 35% |
| Shots per game | 14.2 | 14.6 | 11.4 | 9.0 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| Shots on target | 32% | 36% | 30% | 29% |
| Possession | 54% | 56% | 41% | 38% |
| Passes per game | 442.0 | 456.9 | 329.5 | 324.2 |
| Pass accuracy | 86% | 86% | 79% | – |
| Corners per game | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 3.2 |
| Corners against per game | 6.1 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 7.5 |
| Cards per game | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Fouls per game | 14.0 | 14.8 | 11.3 | 10.5 |
League matches this season (Serie A). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Bahia
- 0-15 6 / 5
- 16-30 7 / 8
- 31-45 16 / 10
- 46-60 3 / 6
- 61-75 5 / 9
- 76-90+ 13 / 7
Usual formation: 4-3-3
Coritiba
- 0-15 2 / 4
- 16-30 4 / 9
- 31-45 9 / 5
- 46-60 8 / 8
- 61-75 8 / 13
- 76-90+ 7 / 14
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 35 | +4 | 51 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Vasco DA Gama | 34 | -5 | 44 |
| 12 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 13 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 35 | -9 | 41 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 34 | -37 | 21 |
Table as of
Next matches
Bahia
- Sun 29 Nov Botafogo – BahiaSerie A
- Thu 3 Dec Bahia – Atletico-MGSerie A
Coritiba
- Sun 29 Nov Coritiba – FlamengoSerie A
- Thu 3 Dec Palmeiras – CoritibaSerie A
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Bahia 4 wins · 4 draws · Coritiba 2 wins
- 25/05/2026 Coritiba 3-2 BahiaSerie A
- 14/09/2023 Coritiba 2-4 BahiaSerie A
- 07/05/2023 Bahia 3-1 CoritibaSerie A
- 16/11/2020 Coritiba 1-2 BahiaSerie A
- 12/08/2020 Bahia 1-0 CoritibaSerie A
- 30/09/2017 Bahia 1-1 CoritibaSerie A
- 15/06/2017 Coritiba 0-0 BahiaSerie A
- 07/12/2014 Coritiba 3-2 BahiaSerie A
- 07/09/2014 Bahia 0-0 CoritibaSerie A
- 15/09/2013 Coritiba 2-2 BahiaSerie A
Match facts
Last matches · Bahia
- L Fri 6 Nov A Cruzeiro 2-3
- W Thu 29 Oct H Sao Paulo 3-2
- D Sun 25 Oct A Santos 1-1
- L Sun 18 Oct H Flamengo 0-3
- W Sun 11 Oct H Mirassol 1-0
- L Fri 9 Oct A Palmeiras 0-1
Last matches · Coritiba
- L Wed 4 Nov A Internacional 0-1
- W Sat 31 Oct H Vitoria 2-0
- L Mon 26 Oct H Gremio 0-1
- L Sat 17 Oct A Atletico-MG 0-1
- D Mon 12 Oct H Botafogo 1-1
- L Fri 9 Oct A Fluminense 0-4
Recent record
| · | Bahia | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| Matches in sample | 10 | 10 |
| Scored | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Conceded | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Points per game | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% |
Home and away record
| · | Bahia (H) | Coritiba (A) |
|---|---|---|
| Matches in sample | 10 | 10 |
| Scored | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Conceded | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Points per game | 2.10 | 0.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% |
Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.