La Liga · Matchday 12 
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: prediction, stats and form
La Liga, Sunday 8 November. The PreviaXI model gives Atletico Madrid 29%, the draw 23% and Barcelona 48%, with a predicted score of 1-2. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.
PreviaXI model
Atletico Madrid29%Draw23%Barcelona48%
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.53 – 1.99
- Double chance
- 12 · 77%1X 52% · X2 71%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68%Over 1.5: 87% · Over 3.5: 47%
- Both teams score
- 68%
- Clean sheet
- 14% – 22%Atletico Madrid–Barcelona
- Half-time result
- 2 · 39%1 26% · X 35%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 30%1/1 17% · X/2 14%
- Expected corners
- 10.85.8 – 5.0 · Over 9.5: 62%
- Expected cards
- 3.82.1 – 1.7 · Over 3.5: 52%
- Most likely scores
- 1-19%
- 1-29%
- 2-17%
- 2-27%
- 1-36%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Barcelona
- Power ratings: Atletico Madrid +0.43 goals per game (4th of 20 in La Liga), Barcelona +1.49 (1st).
- Atletico Madrid's attack (1.63 goals per game) meets Barcelona's defence (1.15 conceded per game).
- Barcelona's attack (2.64) meets Atletico Madrid's defence (1.20).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 30% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.53 – 1.99 goals: Atletico Madrid 29%, draw 23%, Barcelona 48%.
Match facts
Last matches · Atletico Madrid
- W Sat 31 Oct A Levante 2-0
- W Sat 24 Oct H Deportivo La Coruna 1-0
- D Tue 20 Oct A VfB Stuttgart 1-1
- W Sat 17 Oct A Espanyol 1-0
- W Tue 13 Oct H Manchester United 2-0
- W Sat 10 Oct A Alaves 2-1
Last matches · Barcelona
- W Sat 31 Oct H Alaves 6-1
- L Sun 25 Oct H Real Madrid 1-2
- L Tue 20 Oct A Paris Saint Germain 2-4
- W Sat 17 Oct A Real Betis 5-2
- W Tue 13 Oct A Galatasaray 4-1
- W Sat 10 Oct H Getafe 3-0
Last 10 matches
| · | Atletico Madrid | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.9 | 4.0 |
| Conceded | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 2.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
Home and away record
| · | Atletico Madrid (H) | Barcelona (A) |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.8 | 3.1 |
| Conceded | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Points per game | 2.30 | 2.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% |
Home team: last 10 home games. Away team: last 10 away games.
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/20 | Atletico Madrid | 11 | +14 | 28 |
| 1/20 | Barcelona | 11 | +34 | 30 |
Last meetings
- 2026Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona
- 2026Barcelona 0-2 Atletico Madrid
- 2026Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona
- 2026Barcelona 3-0 Atletico Madrid
- 2026Atletico Madrid 4-0 Barcelona
- 2025Barcelona 3-1 Atletico Madrid
Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.