Primeira Liga · Matchday 11 
Alverca vs Casa Pia: prediction, stats and form
Primeira Liga, Saturday 7 November. The PreviaXI model gives Alverca 55%, the draw 23% and Casa Pia 22%, with a predicted score of 1-0. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.
PreviaXI model
Alverca55%Draw23%Casa Pia22%
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.60 – 0.89
- Double chance
- 1X · 78%12 77% · X2 45%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%Over 1.5: 70% · Over 3.5: 24%
- Both teams score
- 46%
- Clean sheet
- 41% – 20%Alverca–Casa Pia
- Half-time result
- X · 42%1 39% · 2 19%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 34%X/1 19% · X/X 15%
- Expected corners
- 9.76.1 – 3.6 · Over 9.5: 50%
- Expected cards
- 4.72.1 – 2.6 · Over 3.5: 66%
- Most likely scores
- 1-014%
- 1-111%
- 2-011%
- 2-19%
- 0-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Alverca
- Power ratings: Alverca -0.02 goals per game (10th of 18 in Primeira Liga), Casa Pia -0.55 (18th).
- Alverca's attack (1.30 goals per game) meets Casa Pia's defence (1.50 conceded per game).
- Casa Pia's attack (0.95) meets Alverca's defence (1.32).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 16% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.60 – 0.89 goals: Alverca 55%, draw 23%, Casa Pia 22%.
Match facts
Last matches · Alverca
- L Sat 24 Oct H Arouca 0-1
- W Mon 12 Oct A Famalicao 4-1
- W Sat 19 Sept H Rio Ave 1-0
- W Sat 12 Sept A Nacional 3-1
- L Sat 5 Sept H SC Braga 1-2
- D Sat 29 Aug H Santa Clara 1-1
Last matches · Casa Pia
- L Fri 30 Oct H Sporting CP 0-2
- W Sat 24 Oct A Estrela 2-0
- L Sat 10 Oct H Santa Clara 0-1
- W Sun 20 Sept A Estoril 2-1
- L Sat 12 Sept H FC Porto 1-4
- D Sun 6 Sept A Vitória SC 0-0
Last 10 matches
| · | Alverca | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Conceded | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Points per game | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 70% |
Home and away record
| · | Alverca (H) | Casa Pia (A) |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Conceded | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Points per game | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% |
Home team: last 10 home games. Away team: last 10 away games.
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/18 | Alverca | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 17/18 | Casa Pia | 10 | -14 | 7 |
Last meetings
- 2026Alverca 3-1 Casa Pia
- 2025Casa Pia 0-2 Alverca
Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.