A-League · Matchday 4 
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory: prediction, stats and form
A-League, Sunday 8 November. The PreviaXI model gives Adelaide United 36%, the draw 27% and Melbourne Victory 37%, with a predicted score of 1-2. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.
PreviaXI model
Adelaide United36%Draw27%Melbourne Victory37%
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.46 – 1.51
- Double chance
- 12 · 73%1X 63% · X2 64%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%Over 1.5: 81% · Over 3.5: 35%
- Both teams score
- 61%
- Clean sheet
- 22% – 23%Adelaide United–Melbourne Victory
- Half-time result
- X · 40%1 29% · 2 31%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 23%1/1 21% · X/X 15%
- Expected corners
- 10.85.9 – 4.9 · Over 9.5: 62%
- Expected cards
- 3.81.7 – 2.1 · Over 3.5: 52%
- Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 1-29%
- 2-18%
- 0-17%
- 1-06%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model sees a close match
- Power ratings: Adelaide United -0.15 goals per game (11th of 12 in A-League), Melbourne Victory +0.19 (2nd).
- Adelaide United's attack (1.49 goals per game) meets Melbourne Victory's defence (1.30 conceded per game).
- Melbourne Victory's attack (1.49) meets Adelaide United's defence (1.64).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 22% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.46 – 1.51 goals: Adelaide United 36%, draw 27%, Melbourne Victory 37%.
Match facts
Last matches · Adelaide United
- L Sun 1 Nov A Perth Glory 0-4
- L Thu 29 Oct H Home United 0-2
- L Sun 25 Oct A Sydney 1-2
- W Thu 15 Oct A BG Pathum United 2-1
- W Thu 17 Sept H Wofoo Tai Po 3-0
- L Tue 11 Aug H Công An Nhân Dân 0-2
Last matches · Melbourne Victory
- D Sun 1 Nov H Central Coast Mariners 1-1
- L Wed 28 Oct A Persib Bandung 0-2
- D Sat 24 Oct H Melbourne City 1-1
- L Sun 18 Oct A Wellington Phoenix 1-2
- W Wed 14 Oct H FC Seoul 3-0
- D Wed 16 Sept A Viettel 1-1
Last 10 matches
| · | Adelaide United | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Conceded | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Points per game | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% |
Home and away record
| · | Adelaide United (H) | Melbourne Victory (A) |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Conceded | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% |
Home team: last 10 home games. Away team: last 10 away games.
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12 | Adelaide United | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 9/12 | Melbourne Victory | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Last meetings
- 2026Melbourne Victory 1-1 Adelaide United
- 2026Adelaide United 2-1 Melbourne Victory
- 2025Melbourne Victory 2-1 Adelaide United
Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.