UEFA Europa League – League phase, matchday 3: predictions & previews

All 18 matches of UEFA Europa League League phase, matchday 3 (22 October 2026): the PreviaXI model's win, draw and loss probabilities and predicted score for every game, the key numbers of the round, results as they come in, and links to each preview.

Europe

Key numbers

Biggest favourite: Juventus (66% to win against Rennes).
Closest on paper: Omonia Nicosia – Benfica (36% vs 36%, draw 28%).
Most goals expected: Dinamo Zagreb – NEC Nijmegen (3.7 expected goals); fewest: Olympiakos Piraeus – Sparta Praha (2.0).
Both teams to score is more likely than not in 16 of 17 matches.
The model expects about 49 goals in these 17 matches (2.90 per match).

All matches

Finished matches (90 min): 17 · most likely result correct: 7 (41%) · over/under 2.5 correct: 11 (65%) · both teams to score correct: 9 (53%)

Thursday 22 October

·	Match	1	X	2	DC	O 2.5	BTTS	Corners	Cards	Result	·
19:45	Ararat-ArmeniaAZ Alkmaar	22%	24%	54%	X278%	55%	56%	11.83.9–7.9	4.51.9–2.6	0-4✅	Preview
19:45	Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegen	65%	19%	16%	1X84%	72%	65%	9.14.4–4.7	3.61.7–1.9	2-4❌	Preview
19:45	JuventusRennes	66%	19%	15%	1X85%	65%	58%	11.47.0–4.4	3.81.7–2.1	2-2❌	Preview
19:45	Lech PoznanSunderland	49%	24%	27%	1276%	62%	62%	8.64.5–4.1	4.31.6–2.7	1-1❌	Preview
19:45	OFIBayer Leverkusen	20%	21%	59%	X280%	67%	64%	10.43.6–6.8	4.22.0–2.2	0-2✅	Preview
19:45	Union St. GilloiseHapoel Beer Sheva	49%	27%	24%	1X76%	48%	51%	8.15.4–2.7	5.02.1–2.9	4-0✅	Preview
19:45	Sturm GrazMarseille	44%	26%	30%	1274%	53%	57%	8.43.2–5.2	4.01.9–2.1	1-0✅	Preview
19:45	Ferencvarosi TCTorreense	–								4-1	Preview
22:00	BeşiktaşCrystal Palace	40%	26%	34%	1274%	56%	60%	9.25.3–3.9	4.62.0–2.6	2-2❌	Preview
22:00	BournemouthAC Milan	51%	24%	25%	1276%	57%	58%	9.05.4–3.6	4.32.3–2.0	3-0✅	Preview
22:00	CeljeRed Bull Salzburg	31%	24%	45%	1276%	62%	64%	8.23.5–4.7	4.02.1–1.9	2-2❌	Preview
22:00	CelticCelta Vigo	48%	26%	26%	1X74%	52%	55%	9.86.5–3.3	3.71.7–2.0	1-2❌	Preview
22:00	1899 HoffenheimLyon	34%	26%	40%	1274%	58%	61%	10.96.5–4.4	4.42.7–1.7	3-0❌	Preview
22:00	JagielloniaAnderlecht	40%	27%	33%	1273%	53%	58%	9.63.6–6.0	5.52.3–3.2	0-3❌	Preview
22:00	LillestromReal Sociedad	40%	27%	33%	1273%	51%	56%	11.15.3–5.8	4.72.1–2.6	0-6❌	Preview
22:00	Olympiakos PiraeusSparta Praha	46%	32%	22%	1X78%	31%	38%	9.45.3–4.1	3.71.8–1.9	1-0✅	Preview
22:00	Omonia NicosiaBenfica	36%	28%	36%	1272%	46%	52%	10.83.3–7.5	4.92.5–2.4	1-4❌	Preview
22:00	PlzenLevski Sofia	31%	28%	41%	1272%	46%	52%	8.14.7–3.4	4.72.1–2.6	1-2✅	Preview