Kenya and South Africa meet with five points between them

A five-point gap

South Africa sit top of Group D, five points ahead of third-placed Kenya after three matches, so the leaders can widen the gap while Kenya have a chance to close it. South Africa are unbeaten in the competition, with two wins and a draw; Kenya are without a win after two draws and a defeat.

Kenya have already qualified for the finals as co-hosts. South Africa are competing with Guinea and Eritrea for the group’s other qualifying place.

South Africa’s scoring edge

In three Africa Cup of Nations qualification matches, South Africa have scored nine goals and conceded three, compared with Kenya’s three scored and four conceded. The contrast points to an attacking edge for South Africa, although Kenya’s sole home match in the competition ended in a 1-1 draw, while South Africa won their only away match without conceding.

A pattern to watch is whether Kenya can keep South Africa’s attack quieter than it has been in the competition: South Africa have scored five goals in their one away match, but Kenya have conceded only once in their one home match.

A recent draw

The teams’ only listed meeting was on 13 November in this competition, when they drew 2-2. Neither side has won that encounter, giving this rematch a recent example of Kenya matching the group leaders.

Our prediction

South Africa’s stronger scoring record in the competition gives them a slight edge, but the recent draw and Kenya’s home result suggest the hosts can make this close. A South Africa win is a plausible outcome, though a draw remains a strong alternative.