Guinea-Bissau aim to extend their five-point lead over Madagascar

The points gap in Group L

Guinea-Bissau lead Group L with seven points, five clear of Madagascar in third, after three matches apiece in Africa Cup of Nations qualifying. A win would extend the leaders’ advantage; a Madagascar victory would cut it, while a draw would leave the gap unchanged.

Guinea-Bissau are unbeaten in three qualifying matches, with two wins followed by a draw. Madagascar have drawn their last two and are without a win in three.

Guinea-Bissau’s scoring against Madagascar’s defence

In this competition, Guinea-Bissau have scored six and conceded one across three matches, keeping two clean sheets. Madagascar have scored three and conceded four in their three qualifying games, without a clean sheet.

That contrast gives Guinea-Bissau the edge on the available competition record, but the visitors’ two consecutive draws offer a counterpoint. One pattern to watch is whether Guinea-Bissau can maintain their scoring output against a side that has conceded in all three of its matches.

A recent draw between them

The teams drew 1-1 in their most recent meeting, on 12 November in this qualifying competition. It was their only listed head-to-head match.

Our prediction

Guinea-Bissau have the stronger qualifying record and home advantage, so they have the edge. Madagascar’s run of consecutive draws suggests they could make this competitive, and a draw remains a plausible outcome.