Ivory Coast 2–1 Gambia

Six points, a narrow edge

Ivory Coast and Gambia meet with identical totals of six points after two Group C matches, but the hosts sit first and Gambia second. Ivory Coast’s goal difference is +4, one better than Gambia’s +3, so the teams are level on points and separated only by the current tie-break.

A third straight qualifying win would strengthen either side’s position at the top of the group. Ivory Coast have the edge in the table, but Gambia arrive with the same points and a chance to move ahead.

Two wins apiece

Both teams have won their first two matches in this Africa Cup of Nations qualifying competition. Ivory Coast have scored four goals and conceded none across those two games, keeping two clean sheets. Gambia have scored six and conceded three, making their start more open at both ends.

Those figures cover only two matches in this competition, rather than either side’s broader season form. Ivory Coast’s defensive record is the clearest contrast, while Gambia have produced the higher goal tally.

Recent meetings favour Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast have won both of the teams’ last two meetings, with no draws or Gambia victories. The most recent was a 1-0 Ivory Coast win in March 2025 in World Cup qualifying; the other ended 2-0 in November 2023, also in World Cup qualifying.

Both meetings featured two goals or fewer, a reminder that this fixture has recently been tight despite Gambia’s higher scoring return in the current qualifying campaign.

Defensive discipline against attacking output

Ivory Coast’s two clean sheets in this competition give them a solid platform, while Gambia’s six goals across their opening two matches point to their attacking threat. The visitors have also conceded three, however, and will need to manage the home side’s ability to turn a strong defensive start into another win.

Our prediction

Ivory Coast have a narrow edge thanks to their home advantage, two clean sheets and record in the recent head-to-head meetings. But Gambia have also won both qualifying matches and scored freely, so a draw remains a credible outcome in a close contest. The numbers lean toward Ivory Coast avoiding defeat, rather than a clear-cut result.