Benin 4–1 Central African Republic

Group F stakes

Benin can strengthen their grip on Group F, while Central African Republic need a result to begin closing the gap. After two matches, Benin lead the four-team group with four points; Central African Republic are fourth on zero, four points behind.

A sharp contrast in the competition

Benin have taken a win and a draw in their two Africa Cup of Nations qualifying matches, scoring three goals and conceding two. Their latest result was a win, and they have scored twice in their one home match in the competition.

Central African Republic have lost both of their matches, scoring once and conceding four. They are also coming off a defeat, and their only away game in the competition ended in a loss. The contrast is clear: Benin have made a positive start and shown more attacking output, while their opponents have struggled to turn chances into goals and have conceded more.

These figures cover two matches in this competition only, not the teams’ overall season or recent form. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in those games, so Benin’s advantage in the table does not remove the possibility of a goal at either end.

The home edge and the pressure

Benin’s sole home appearance in the competition brought a win, with two goals scored and one conceded. Central African Republic’s sole away appearance brought a defeat, with one goal scored and three conceded. Those small samples point toward a tougher assignment for the visitors, who must find a way to improve both their defensive resistance and their scoring.

Our prediction

Benin have the edge because their stronger start, higher goal output and home result contrast with Central African Republic’s two defeats and difficult away outing. Still, neither team has kept a clean sheet in this competition, so the visitors could make the match uncomfortable if they are more efficient in front of goal.