Iraq and Iran renew a closely contested rivalry

A rivalry with a limited historical guide

Iran won three of the last five completed meetings in the available head-to-head record; Iraq won once and one match was drawn. The latest of those meetings was in January 2022, when Iran won 1-0 in World Cup qualifying. These are older encounters, not a record of the teams’ current form.

Comparing the available friendly samples

Iraq’s two home friendlies in the archived sample produced one goal scored and two conceded, with a win and a defeat. Iran’s three away friendlies in that sample brought six goals scored and five conceded, with one win and two defeats. The samples differ in size and do not establish either team’s current winning or losing streak.

Iran’s greater scoring output in that bounded sample offers one possible advantage, while the goals conceded show a potential opening for Iraq. A practical point to watch is whether Iraq can prevent Iran from converting attacking possession into clear chances while creating more of its own.

Our prediction

Iran have a modest historical edge, but the older head-to-head record and small friendly samples do not justify a strong conclusion. A close contest and a draw remain plausible, with either team able to change the balance through its selection and performance.