Guatemala 2–3 Canada

The first leg

Guatemala host the first leg at Estadio Manuel Felipe Carrera. The return is at BMO Field in Toronto, and the aggregate winner advances to the Nations League Finals.

Guatemala’s home platform

Guatemala are unbeaten in three, with a win in their most recent CONCACAF Nations League match. In this competition, they have recorded two wins, a draw and a defeat across four matches, scoring nine goals and conceding three. Their home results are particularly compelling: two wins from two, seven goals scored and none conceded, with a clean sheet in each.

Canada have had the upper hand

Canada’s most recent meeting with Guatemala was a 1-0 friendly win in January 2026. Across the last three meetings, Canada have one win and two draws, while Guatemala have not won; Canada are unbeaten in that run. Each of those three matches produced two goals or fewer, a pattern that adds weight to the prospect of a measured quarter-final.

Guatemala’s defensive record

Guatemala’s three clean sheets in four Nations League matches underline the defensive base behind their progress to this stage. At home in the competition, they have yet to concede. That record will be central to their hopes of containing Canada and making their attacking output count.

Our prediction

Guatemala’s home defence and Canada’s unbeaten run in the last three meetings point to a close first leg. Guatemala kept a clean sheet in both home games in the group stage, while Canada won the most recent meeting.