Ajax to Groningen: One Place and a Goal Difference Apart

Ajax head north to Groningen on Sunday with the kind of margin that makes every point feel heavy. They sit fifth on 15 points, one place and one point above their hosts, and the real separator is goal difference: +12 for Ajax against +6 for Groningen.

Context & stakes

In an 18-team Eredivisie, the gap between fifth and sixth is barely visible, but both clubs are looking for the edge that puts them clear of the chasing pack. Eight matches in, neither side has yet established itself as a consistent force, which makes this fixture a useful marker.

Form: two sides running hot and cold

Ajax’s recent run has been built on scoring, with 14 goals in their last five matches, though they have also conceded eight. Groningen have been similarly productive, netting 13 times in that spell and conceding seven. The standings form tells the story: Ajax’s DDWWL and Groningen’s WWDDL show two teams trading wins and draws in equal measure.

Away from home, Ajax have been very difficult to beat. They have won all three of their road games this season and conceded only once on their travels. Groningen’s home record is more mixed, with two wins, a draw and a defeat at the Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, scoring nine times there.

Head-to-head: Ajax’s recent edge

Ajax have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning three of the last five, including a 2-0 victory in the most recent fixture in May. Groningen’s only win in that run came in March, a 3-1 home triumph. The other two games ended in a 2-2 draw and a 3-1 Ajax win.

Team news

Groningen will be without T. Hernes, M. Jeng, T. Mercera and E. van der Laan, all sidelined through injury. Ajax face a longer list of absentees: S. Berghuis, D. Blind (back), Caio Henrique (thigh), K. Dolberg (knee) and A. Gaaei will all miss the trip.

Our prediction

Groningen 1-2 Ajax

Ajax’s away record and their superior goal difference give them the stronger claim, even with a sizeable injury list. Groningen have shown they can score at home and will look to exploit gaps in a stretched Ajax backline, so this should be tight and open. The visitors’ edge in the final third should be enough to take all three points.