Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar: Can Leeuwarden's underdogs trouble the Eredivisie's second force?

Cambuur have conceded 13 goals in four home league matches this season, more than three per game on their own patch. That is the problem Sunday’s hosts must solve against AZ Alkmaar.

Second against thirteenth

AZ sit second in the Eredivisie with 19 points from eight games and a goal difference of +10. Cambuur are 13th of 18 with 8 points and a goal difference of -8. On paper this is the favourite against the underdog, and AZ arrive as the side with more to lose in terms of expectation. Cambuur, however, have nothing to lose and a home crowd to lean on at the Kooi Stadion in Leeuwarden.

Momentum with the visitors

AZ have been the more productive side this season, scoring 18 goals in eight matches and conceding eight. Their away record is particularly strong: three wins from four trips, with one defeat. Their recent run has been three wins, one draw and one defeat in five league games, with 10 goals scored and 7 conceded.

Cambuur have been far less settled. Their last five league results read two wins, two draws and a defeat, with 8 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their season has yielded two wins in eight, and only six goals have come in their four home fixtures from a total of 11 scored, while their home defence has leaked 13.

Head-to-head

The sides have met five times in the competition’s recent history, and the pattern favours AZ. They have won three of those meetings and drawn two, including a goalless cup tie in 2017. Cambuur have yet to win against AZ in that period, though their 2021 and 2022 defeats came by margins that suggest they were competitive at times.

Injury lists on both sides

Cambuur will be without W. Asselman and D. Visser, who are both missing through injury, the latter with a knee problem. J. Amofa is a doubt. AZ also have absentees: J. Hornkamp, K. Smit and S. Resink are all out, with Resink’s issue another knee injury.

Our prediction

Cambuur 1-2 AZ Alkmaar. Cambuur have shown they can score, and the Kooi crowd may give them an early edge, but their defensive record at home is too fragile to hold a side scoring as freely as AZ. We expect the visitors to win a close contest by taking their chances.