UEFA Nations League · League A - 6 
Germany’s unbeaten run against Netherlands faces a tougher test
Germany have avoided defeat in their last five meetings with Netherlands, but the visitors arrive on a stronger scoring run in this Nations League group. The model leans towards an away win, while a draw remains a plausible alternative.
📍 Olympiastadion
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Germany are unbeaten in three, but Netherlands have won their last two matches and avoided defeat in all five of their UEFA Nations League games. That contrast sets up a meeting between Germany’s recent resilience and a Netherlands side that has scored 14 goals in the competition.
Group positions keep the pressure on
Netherlands lead League A Group B with 11 points after five matches, three ahead of third-placed Germany on eight. The standings make this a significant meeting between the sides, though the round label alone does not establish what either result would mean for qualification.
Netherlands’ scoring against Germany’s defence
Across five UEFA Nations League matches, Germany have scored six goals and conceded three; Netherlands have scored 14 and conceded five. Germany’s home split in this competition is a win and a defeat from two matches, with two goals scored and one conceded. Netherlands have taken four points from two away matches, scoring four and conceding three.
The comparison gives Netherlands the clearer scoring record, while Germany’s three goals conceded across five matches point to a defence that has been harder to breach. One pattern to watch is whether Germany can keep the visitors’ scoring below their competition average, particularly after Netherlands scored four goals across their two away games.
Germany’s recent edge in the rivalry
Germany are unbeaten in the last five meetings, winning two while the other three ended in draws; Netherlands have not won any of them. The most recent meeting, in the Nations League in September, finished 1-1. Three of those five matches had two goals or fewer, another reason not to assume the visitors’ stronger scoring run will automatically produce a high-scoring contest.
Our prediction
Netherlands have the edge: their stronger scoring record and unbeaten Nations League campaign support the model’s preference for an away win. Germany’s defensive record and unbeaten head-to-head run make a draw a credible alternative, so an away victory is not a certainty.
Understand the analysis
Worked examples, uncertainty and the difference between a likely result and an exact score.
Match facts
Recent form
Germany
- W A Serbia 3-1
- D A Greece 0-0
- W H Serbia 2-0
- L H Greece 0-1
- D A Netherlands 1-1
Netherlands
- W H Greece 7-0
- W H Serbia 2-1
- D A Greece 2-2
- W A Serbia 2-1
- D H Germany 1-1
Completed matches in our provider’s data, newest first. The listed team’s goals appear first in each score.
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Netherlands | 2.8 | 1.0 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 5 | +9 | 11 |
| 3 | Germany | 5 | +3 | 8 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Netherlands 1-1 Germany
- 2024 Germany 1-0 Netherlands
- 2024 Netherlands 2-2 Germany
- 2024 Germany 2-1 Netherlands
- 2022 Netherlands 1-1 Germany
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.13 – 1.59
- Double chance
- Draw or away win75%Home win or draw 55% · Either team wins 70%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%Over 1.5: 78% · Over 3.5: 29%
- Both teams score
- 52%
- Clean sheet
- 20% – 32%Germany–Netherlands
- Half-time result
- X · 42%1 22% · 2 36%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 28%X/X 18% · X/2 15%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Netherlands
- Expected goals favour Netherlands: 1.13 – 1.59.
Main uncertainty: the other two results still add up to 55%, led by a draw at 30%.
Built only from the model numbers above. For information; not a certainty.
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