UEFA Nations League · League B - 6 
Slovenia’s recent win sets the tone for North Macedonia rematch
Slovenia beat FYR Macedonia 2-0 in their latest meeting, and arrive with a stronger Nations League record. The model favours an away win, though a draw remains a plausible alternative.
📍 Nacional Arena Todor Proeski
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AI-assisted writing with automated checks against the supplied match data. How we prepare and review previews
Context and stakes
Slovenia sit second in League B - Group A with eight points after five matches, while FYR Macedonia are fourth on zero. Slovenia are two places and eight points ahead, giving the visitors the stronger position going into this final group-stage meeting.
The key matchup
In the UEFA Nations League, across five matches in this competition only, FYR Macedonia have scored once and conceded 12. Slovenia have scored five and conceded three over the same number of matches. The contrast points towards Slovenia, although their away record in this competition is less secure: they have won one and lost one of two away matches, conceding three goals.
There is also a clear home pattern to watch: FYR Macedonia have lost both of their home Nations League matches without scoring, while Slovenia have scored three goals across their two away games.
Relevant head-to-head
Slovenia won the most recent meeting 2-0 in the UEFA Nations League on 29 September. Across the last four meetings, each side has won once and two matches have been drawn; three of those four produced no more than two goals.
Our prediction
Slovenia have the edge, with their stronger five-match record and the latest head-to-head result pointing towards an away win. A draw remains a plausible alternative, particularly given Slovenia’s mixed results on the road in this competition.
Understand the analysis
Worked examples, uncertainty and the difference between a likely result and an exact score.
Match facts
Recent form
FYR Macedonia
- L A Scotland 1-2
- L A Switzerland 0-3
- L H Scotland 0-2
- L A Slovenia 0-2
- L H Switzerland 0-3
Slovenia
- D H Switzerland 0-0
- W A Scotland 2-1
- L A Switzerland 1-2
- W H FYR Macedonia 2-0
- D H Scotland 0-0
Completed matches in our provider’s data, newest first. The listed team’s goals appear first in each score.
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| FYR Macedonia | 0.2 | 2.4 |
| Slovenia | 1.0 | 0.6 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Slovenia | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 4 | FYR Macedonia | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Slovenia 2-0 FYR Macedonia
- 2021 FYR Macedonia 1-1 Slovenia
- 2019 FYR Macedonia 2-1 Slovenia
- 2019 Slovenia 1-1 FYR Macedonia
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: High
- Expected goals (model)
- 0.48 – 1.63
- Double chance
- Draw or away win91%Home win or draw 36% · Either team wins 73%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%Over 1.5: 64% · Over 3.5: 16%
- Both teams score
- 43%
- Clean sheet
- 19% – 62%FYR Macedonia–Slovenia
- Half-time result
- X · 46%1 10% · 2 44%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 40%X/2 22% · X/X 20%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Slovenia
- Expected goals favour Slovenia: 0.48 – 1.63.
- The model gives Slovenia a 62% chance of a clean sheet.
Main uncertainty: the other two results still add up to 36%, led by a draw at 27%.
Built only from the model numbers above. For information; not a certainty.
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