FA Cup · 1/128-finals 
Our pick Home win
Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale: recent meetings point to a close FA Cup tie
Rochdale won the latest meeting, but the last five encounters have been closely balanced. Fleetwood Town will look to turn home advantage into a response in the FA Cup.
📍 Highbury Stadium
Preview written:
Match report
After extra time: Fleetwood Town 1-2 Rochdale.
Match statistics (home team first). Shots: 17–9; Shots on target: 5–5; Corners: 10–2.
Goals
- 23' Luke Hannant · Charlie Tasker · Rochdale
- 74' Ronan Coughlan (pen.) · Fleetwood Town
- 111' Babajide Ezekiel Adeeko · Rochdale
Cards
- 9' Jake Thomas Batty · Fleetwood Town
- 34' Harvey Gilmour · Rochdale
- 113' Cian Hayes · Rochdale
- 116' Harrison Neal · Fleetwood Town
Match stats
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Fleetwood Town · 5-3-2
- 1J. LynchG
- 14L. McCannD
- 16Conor HaugheyD
- 6R. BennettD
- 5F. PotterD
- 24Jake Thomas BattyD
- 27C. McLeanM
- 4H. NealM
- 7A. CannonM
- 19R. CoughlanF
- 20A. Loupalo-BiF
Coach: M. Lawlor
Rochdale · 4-2-3-1
- 20Sam William John WallerG
- 3Kaiden WilsonD
- 44A. FlintD
- 2C. TaskerD
- 13O. Adebayo-RowlingD
- 35J. PatersonM
- 8H. GilmourM
- 19L. HannantM
- 11Z. Silcott-DuberryM
- 45G. MiddletonM
- 39D. BrownF
Coach: Ian Watson
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Rochdale | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Fleetwood Town 1-2 Rochdale
- 2024 Fleetwood Town 1-1 Rochdale
- 2021 Rochdale 3-3 Fleetwood Town
- 2021 Fleetwood Town 1-0 Rochdale
- 2020 Rochdale 2-1 Fleetwood Town
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.35 – 1.28
- Double chance
- 12 · 73%1X 65% · X2 62%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%Over 1.5: 75% · Over 3.5: 27%
- Both teams score
- 54%
- Clean sheet
- 28% – 26%Fleetwood Town–Rochdale
- Half-time result
- X · 43%1 30% · 2 27%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 22%2/2 20% · X/X 17%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
The recent head-to-head gives Rochdale a narrow edge, but Fleetwood Town have home advantage and a chance to answer their September defeat when the sides meet in the FA Cup first round on Saturday.
A small league gap, a cup opportunity
Both clubs are in League Two, where Fleetwood Town are 16th with 17 points after 14 matches and Rochdale are 20th with 15. That modest difference gives the match extra significance, but the league positions will count for little if the latest head-to-head pattern holds: the sides have repeatedly made this a competitive contest.
Fleetwood arrive off a win
Fleetwood’s last five league matches have brought two wins, a draw and two defeats, with their most recent outing ending in victory. Rochdale’s last five have been more difficult: two draws and three defeats, including a loss in their latest game. Fleetwood therefore come into the cup tie with the stronger immediate result, though neither side has built a dominant run.
Recent meetings favour Rochdale
Rochdale have won two of the last five meetings, Fleetwood one, and the other two ended level. The latest encounter came in September, when Rochdale won 2-1 away at Fleetwood in League Two. That result offers the visitors a recent reference point, but it also gives Fleetwood a direct opportunity to respond.
The broader record suggests a tight matchup rather than a settled rivalry: two of those five meetings contained two goals or fewer, while the other games included draws and narrow margins. The 1-1 draw in July 2024 and Fleetwood’s 1-0 league win in April 2021 underline how little has separated them at times.
Home advantage and a narrow edge
Fleetwood will hope that playing at Highbury Stadium helps them reverse the latest result. The statistical model gives the home side a slight advantage, with the teams otherwise closely matched. That points towards a cautious contest in which Fleetwood’s home setting and more encouraging recent league result could make the difference, but Rochdale’s recent win in this fixture makes them a credible threat.
Our prediction
Fleetwood’s home advantage and latest league win tilt a finely balanced tie their way, while the recent meetings suggest Rochdale can keep the score close. Fleetwood Town 1-0 Rochdale
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