Copa del Rey · Round of 128 
Our pick1–2Missed
Knockout stakes: Atlético Paso aim to shake up Cordoba in Copa del Rey tie
Atlético Paso head into the Copa del Rey round of 128 on the back of solid league form, while Segunda División side Córdoba travel as favourites with the clearer chance-creation edge. Progression carries contrasting rewards for the two clubs.
Preview written:
Match report
Atlético Paso came from behind to beat Cordoba 3-1 in the Copa del Rey Round of 128. Cordoba opened the scoring when I. Sanz netted in the 30th minute, assisted by T. Zidane. Atlético Paso levelled in the 64th minute through I. Villoslada, and the same minute saw Cordoba reduced to ten men after I. Ania received a red card. A. Perera then struck twice, scoring in the 76th minute and again in the 90+5 minute to seal the victory.
PreviaXI’s model before kick-off had predicted a 1-2 result in favour of the away side, with probabilities of 31% home win, 26% draw and 43% away win; the actual outcome reversed that predicted winner and ended 3-1 to the home team.
Goals
- 30'I. Sanz · T. Zidane · Cordoba
- 64'I. Villoslada · Atlético Paso
- 76'A. Perera · Atlético Paso
- 90+5'A. Perera · Atlético Paso
Cards
- 32'S. El Jebari · Cordoba
- 56'I. Munoz · Atlético Paso
- 64'I. Ania · Cordoba
- 64'Guilherme Fernandes · Cordoba
- 89'C. Albarran · Cordoba
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Atlético Paso | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cordoba | 0.0 | 0.0 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.27 – 1.50
- Double chance
- 12 · 74%1X 57% · X2 69%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%Over 1.5: 77% · Over 3.5: 30%
- Both teams score
- 57%
- Clean sheet
- 22% – 28%Atlético Paso–Cordoba
- Half-time result
- X · 41%1 26% · 2 33%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 25%1/1 18% · X/X 16%
- Expected corners
- 9.65.3 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 49%
- Expected cards
- 4.11.9 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 58%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 1-29%
- 0-19%
- 2-18%
- 1-07%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Atlético Paso’s current run and what this tie means
Atlético Paso arrive in this Copa del Rey tie off a strong sequence in their domestic campaign, with a WDLWD run in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5. For the lower‑division hosts, advancing would be a notable cup achievement and a chance to pit themselves against higher‑level opposition in the national competition.
Cordoba’s situation and the prize on offer
Córdoba sit in Segunda División and also occupy 11th place in their league; their recent league form reads WWLWL. For the visitors, progression is about avoiding an upset and continuing a run that could build momentum alongside their league campaign.
Form lines to watch
Both teams bring dependable league sequences rather than large sample sizes in cup play. Atlético Paso’s home-season form shows them competing steadily in Group 5, while Córdoba’s results in Spain’s second tier suggest they are used to a higher standard week to week. That contrast — a mid‑table Segunda side against an 11th‑placed Segunda RFEF outfit — frames this as a classic cup tie where league levels influence expectations.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Córdoba and the underlying numbers point to a narrow away win: Córdoba create slightly clearer chances while Atlético Paso can still produce goals at home. Expect a competitive match where the visitors’ edge in chance creation decides a tight contest.
Atlético Paso 1-2 Cordoba
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