Copa del Rey · Round of 128 
Our pick1–2Missed
Arosa's friendly win vs Pontevedra sets an intriguing contrast in Copa del Rey tie
Arosa beat Pontevedra 3-1 in their most recent meeting — a friendly in August — but the competitive balance on paper favours Pontevedra, who play two tiers higher and carry better league form into this Copa del Rey Round of 128 tie.
Preview written:
Match report
Arosa beat Pontevedra 2-0. The scoring came in the second half: in the 55th minute M. Remeseiro put Arosa ahead, and in the 66th minute Gabri Palmas added the second. There were no red cards.
Before kick-off a PreviaXI model had predicted a 1-2 score and gave Pontevedra a 51% chance to win, a 25% chance for an Arosa win and a 24% chance of a draw; the actual 2-0 home victory therefore differed from that pre-match prediction.
Goals
- 55'M. Remeseiro · Arosa
- 66'Gabri Palmas · Arosa
Cards
- 16'R. Ergouai · Pontevedra
- 26'S. Santos · Arosa
- 58'A. Rey · Arosa
- 66'Y. Pino · Pontevedra
- 81'A. Concheiro · Arosa
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Arosa | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Pontevedra | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Last meetings
- 2026Arosa3-1Pontevedra
- 2022Arosa1-1Pontevedra
- 2021Pontevedra1-0Arosa
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.24 – 1.82
- Double chance
- 12 · 76%1X 49% · X2 75%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%Over 1.5: 81% · Over 3.5: 36%
- Both teams score
- 60%
- Clean sheet
- 16% – 29%Arosa–Pontevedra
- Half-time result
- 2 · 39%1 23% · X 38%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 32%X/2 16% · 1/1 15%
- Expected corners
- 9.65.3 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 49%
- Expected cards
- 4.11.9 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 58%
- Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 1-210%
- 0-18%
- 0-28%
- 2-17%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Last meeting still fresh
The sides last met on 1 August 2026 in a pre-season friendly, a match Arosa won 3-1. That result is the most recent chapter in a short recent history between the clubs that includes a 1-1 draw and a 1-0 Pontevedra victory in league meetings across the Segunda División RFEF.
Stakes for each side
This is a classic lower-division versus higher-level clash in the Copa del Rey Round of 128. Arosa are a Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 side sitting 14th with seven points from eight matches; Pontevedra compete in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 and are sixth with 14 points from nine. For Arosa, the cup offers a chance to build confidence against stronger opposition; for Pontevedra, it’s an opportunity to assert their status and avoid an upset.
Form contrast
Recent league form underlines the gap. Arosa’s domestic form reads LWDDL, a lowly run that has left them mid-to-lower table in the fourth tier. Pontevedra arrive with WWLLD in the third tier — not flawless but showing more consistency and a higher points return so far. The league positions and form suggest Pontevedra have greater match sharpness in league competition.
Head-to-head snapshot
Across the last five meetings recorded here, Pontevedra have one win, one draw and Arosa claimed a 3-1 friendly victory in August. The earlier two Segunda División RFEF clashes were tighter: a 1-1 draw (April 2022) and a 1-0 Pontevedra win (November 2021).
Team news
There are no absences listed for either side. Both squads should be able to field full teams for this fixture.
Players to watch
No individual player names are provided in the available material. The match will therefore be decided by collective strengths: Arosa’s recent confidence from that friendly and Pontevedra’s higher-level cohesion and attacking output.
Our prediction
The main contrast is clear: Arosa can take belief from the recent friendly win and home familiarity, but Pontevedra’s higher-division status and superior league form point to control over the tie. PreviaXI’s model favours an away victory, reflecting Pontevedra’s edge in creating chances and a steadier league rhythm. Expect a competitive game where Pontevedra’s quality in attack makes the difference.
Arosa 1-2 Pontevedra
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