Ajax vs Atalanta: Can Amsterdam's underdogs trouble the favourites?

Atalanta sit fourth in the Conference League table with three points and a +2 goal difference from their opener, while Ajax are 25th of 36 with no points and a -1 goal difference. On paper, this is a clear favourite-versus-underdog night in Amsterdam, and the question is whether Ajax’s home strength can close that gap.

Nothing on the board for Ajax

Ajax have to start climbing on Thursday, and a home game against a side of Atalanta’s pedigree is a chance to do it. The Dutch club have not yet picked up a point in this competition, so a defeat would leave them with more ground to make up.

Ajax’s goals against Atalanta’s calm

Ajax have been prolific this season, scoring 23 goals in seven matches across all competitions and winning five of them. Their home record is spotless so far: three wins from three at the Johan Cruijff Arena. Their recent sequence has been expansive, with 15 goals in their last five games, though they have also conceded twice per match in that spell.

Atalanta have been more economical. They have taken two wins and a draw from their last three, scored four times and conceded only once. Two clean sheets in that run suggest a side comfortable without the ball, and that composure is what Ajax will have to break down.

A Champions League history with two meetings

The sides met twice in the Champions League in 2020. Ajax won nothing from the first, losing 1-0 at home in December, while Atalanta earned a 2-2 draw in Bergamo in October. Those were tight, competitive games, and the rivalry has a history of goals.

Our prediction

Our model also leans towards Atalanta, and the football supports that. Ajax’s attack is the most dangerous thing they have going for them, and the Arena crowd can push them forward, so expect an open contest with chances at both ends. Atalanta’s defensive discipline and their away composure should still be enough to edge a game that could be decided by one or two moments.

Ajax 1-2 Atalanta