Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: Can the underdogs trouble the Bernabéu favourites?

Real Madrid and RB Leipzig last met on 6 March 2024, and the Bernabéu night ended 1-1. That draw still sets the tone for this rematch, which takes place on Wednesday in matchday three of the League Stage.

Favourites with a lot to prove

The stakes are unequal. Madrid sit eighth in the 36-team table with six points from two games, while Leipzig are 21st on three points and carry a goal difference of minus two. Madrid are the heavy favourites on paper, but a club in Leipzig’s position has nothing to lose, and a result here would be a major statement in a league where every point counts.

Momentum on opposite sides

Madrid have won both of their matches this season and have scored six goals in that span, an average of three per game. They have also conceded four, which suggests the attack is doing most of the work. Leipzig have one win and one defeat, scoring twice across their two outings. Their away trip ended in a heavy defeat, with four goals conceded, and they have been far more solid at home.

Four meetings, no clear pattern

Madrid hold the edge in the head-to-head, with two wins, one draw and one defeat in the four previous meetings. The 2022 group-stage clash in Leipzig, a 3-2 win for the home side, remains the most eye-catching result between the two clubs. Madrid responded with a 1-0 win in Leipzig in February 2024, before the 1-1 draw at the Bernabéu, showing how narrow the margins have been.

Absences on both sides

Madrid will be without R. Asencio, who is out with a broken leg, F. Mendy, who has a hip injury, and Rodrygo, who is sidelined by a knee injury. Leipzig will miss C. Baumgartner (thigh injury), M. Guiu (hamstring injury) and A. Ouedraogo (shoulder injury). L. Zingerle is also not in the squad.

Our prediction

Madrid should have enough in the final third to control the match at the Bernabéu, and their home attacking threat is the biggest factor in their favour. Leipzig have the quality to create chances and can make it uncomfortable, but their defensive problems in recent matches make it hard to see them keeping Madrid out for the full ninety minutes.

Real Madrid 3-1 RB Leipzig