Premier League · Matchday 10 
Manchester United vs Aston Villa: prediction, stats and form
Premier League, Sunday 8 November. The PreviaXI model gives Manchester United 51%, the draw 25% and Aston Villa 24%, with a predicted score of 2-1. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.
PreviaXI model
Manchester United51%Draw25%Aston Villa24%
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.85 – 1.20
- Double chance
- 1X · 76%12 75% · X2 49%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%Over 1.5: 82% · Over 3.5: 36%
- Both teams score
- 60%
- Clean sheet
- 30% – 16%Manchester United–Aston Villa
- Half-time result
- 1 · 39%X 39% · 2 22%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 32%X/1 16% · X/X 14%
- Expected corners
- 9.65.4 – 4.2 · Over 9.5: 50%
- Expected cards
- 4.32.2 – 2.1 · Over 3.5: 63%
- Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 2-110%
- 2-08%
- 1-08%
- 1-26%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Manchester United
- Power ratings: Manchester United +0.30 goals per game (5th of 20 in Premier League), Aston Villa -0.05 (13th).
- Manchester United's attack (1.66 goals per game) meets Aston Villa's defence (1.42 conceded per game).
- Aston Villa's attack (1.37) meets Manchester United's defence (1.36).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 22% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.85 – 1.20 goals: Manchester United 51%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 24%.
Match facts
Last matches · Manchester United
- L Sat 31 Oct A Chelsea 0-2
- L Sun 25 Oct H Bournemouth 0-3
- L Wed 21 Oct A Como 1-4
- D Sun 18 Oct A Leeds 1-1
- L Tue 13 Oct A Atletico Madrid 0-2
- D Sat 10 Oct H Tottenham 1-1
Last matches · Aston Villa
- D Sat 31 Oct H Fulham 1-1
- L Wed 28 Oct A Bournemouth 0-3
- W Sat 24 Oct H Manchester City 2-1
- W Wed 21 Oct H Viking 3-1
- W Sat 17 Oct A Newcastle 1-0
- W Wed 14 Oct H Fenerbahçe 6-0
Last 10 matches
| · | Manchester United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Conceded | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Points per game | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% |
Home and away record
| · | Manchester United (H) | Aston Villa (A) |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Conceded | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.90 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams score | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% |
Home team: last 10 home games. Away team: last 10 away games.
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/20 | Manchester United | 9 | -5 | 7 |
| 9/20 | Aston Villa | 9 | -3 | 12 |
Last meetings
- 2026Manchester United 3-1 Aston Villa
- 2025Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester United
Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.