DFB Pokal · Round of 32 
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: prediction, stats and form
DFB Pokal, Tuesday 27 October. The PreviaXI model gives Borussia Dortmund 66%, the draw 20% and Werder Bremen 14%, with a predicted score of 2-0. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 2-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.17 – 0.88
- Double chance
- 1X · 86%12 80% · X2 34%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%Over 1.5: 81% · Over 3.5: 37%
- Both teams score
- 53%
- Clean sheet
- 41% – 11%Borussia Dortmund–Werder Bremen
- Half-time result
- 1 · 49%X 36% · 2 15%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 44%X/1 19% · X/X 12%
- Expected corners
- 9.66.3 – 3.3 · Over 9.5: 48%
- Expected cards
- 3.51.6 – 1.9 · Over 3.5: 46%
- Most likely scores
- 2-011%
- 2-110%
- 1-010%
- 1-110%
- 3-08%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Borussia Dortmund
- Power ratings: Borussia Dortmund +1.25 goals per game (28th of 420 in Europe), Werder Bremen +0.27 (191st).
- Borussia Dortmund's attack (2.16 goals per game) meets Werder Bremen's defence (1.28 conceded per game).
- Werder Bremen's attack (1.55) meets Borussia Dortmund's defence (0.91).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 25% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 2.17 – 0.88 goals: Borussia Dortmund 66%, draw 20%, Werder Bremen 14%.
Chance to score
Borussia Dortmund
- S. Guirassy6 goals in 10 games44%
- Fábio Silva4 goals in 10 games28%
- D. Svensson2 goals in 11 games17%
Werder Bremen
- N. Füllkrug7 goals in 7 games24%
- M. Grüll2 goals in 7 games8%
- L. Reis2 goals in 7 games8%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in the last 8 meetings with Werder Bremen.
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 7 home matches.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Werder Bremen’s last 8 matches.
- Werder Bremen are unbeaten in their last 6 matches.
- 6 of Werder Bremen’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Werder Bremen have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
Season stats
| · | Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-0 | 3-1-0 | 3-3-1 | 1-2-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.71 | 2.00 | 2.14 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.57 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| xG per game | 1.68 | 1.83 | 1.76 | 1.34 |
| xG against per game | 0.89 | 0.85 | 1.71 | 2.04 |
| Scored in | 86% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 71% | 75% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 25% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57% | 75% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 50% | 86% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 25% | 86% | 75% |
| Shots per game | 15.3 | 18.2 | 14.4 | 12.8 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 |
| Shots on target | 33% | 38% | 49% | 39% |
| Possession | 55% | 61% | 47% | 44% |
| Passes per game | 523.1 | 580.8 | 481.0 | 442.2 |
| Pass accuracy | 84% | 87% | 82% | 82% |
| Corners per game | 6.0 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 5.0 |
| Corners against per game | 4.1 | 2.0 | 5.9 | 7.2 |
| Cards per game | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Fouls per game | 10.7 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 10.8 |
League matches this season (Bundesliga). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Borussia Dortmund
- 0-152 / 0
- 16-300 / 0
- 31-451 / 1
- 46-600 / 1
- 61-753 / 0
- 76-90+4 / 3
Usual formation: 3-4-2-1
Werder Bremen
- 0-151 / 1
- 16-300 / 4
- 31-450 / 1
- 46-601 / 3
- 61-754 / 0
- 76-90+6 / 3
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Next matches
Borussia Dortmund
- Sat 31 OctBayern München – Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- Wed 4 NovBorussia Dortmund – Real BetisUEFA Champions League
- Sat 7 NovBorussia Dortmund – SV ElversbergBundesliga
Werder Bremen
- Sat 31 OctWerder Bremen – 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- Sat 7 NovVfB Stuttgart – Werder BremenBundesliga
- Sun 22 NovWerder Bremen – Hamburger SVBundesliga
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Borussia Dortmund 6 wins · 3 draws · Werder Bremen 1 wins
- 09/10/2026Borussia Dortmund2-2Werder BremenBundesliga
- 16/05/2026Werder Bremen0-2Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 13/01/2026Borussia Dortmund3-0Werder BremenBundesliga
- 25/01/2025Borussia Dortmund2-2Werder BremenBundesliga
- 31/08/2024Werder Bremen0-0Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 09/03/2024Werder Bremen1-2Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 20/10/2023Borussia Dortmund1-0Werder BremenBundesliga
- 11/02/2023Werder Bremen0-2Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 20/08/2022Borussia Dortmund2-3Werder BremenBundesliga
- 18/04/2021Borussia Dortmund4-1Werder BremenBundesliga
Match facts
Last matches · Borussia Dortmund
- W Sat 24 Oct H Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0
- W Tue 20 Oct A Sabah FA 2-1
- D Sat 17 Oct A Union Berlin 0-0
- L Wed 14 Oct A Bodo/Glimt 0-1
- D Fri 9 Oct H Werder Bremen 2-2
- W Sat 19 Sept A VfB Stuttgart 1-0
Last matches · Werder Bremen
- W Sat 24 Oct A FSV Mainz 05 3-2
- D Sat 17 Oct H SC Paderborn 07 2-2
- D Fri 9 Oct A Borussia Dortmund 2-2
- W Sat 19 Sept H FC Augsburg 3-2
- D Sat 12 Sept A 1. FC Köln 1-1
- W Sat 5 Sept H RB Leipzig 3-1
Last 10 matches
| · | Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Conceded | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Points per game | 2.30 | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% |
Home and away record
| · | Borussia Dortmund (H) | Werder Bremen (A) |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Conceded | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% |
Home team: last 10 home games. Away team: last 10 away games.
Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.