DFB Pokal · Round of 32 
1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin: prediction, stats and form
DFB Pokal, Tuesday 27 October. The PreviaXI model gives 1. FC Köln 48%, the draw 25% and Union Berlin 27%, with a predicted score of 2-1. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.68 – 1.21
- Double chance
- 12 · 75%1X 73% · X2 52%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%Over 1.5: 79% · Over 3.5: 33%
- Both teams score
- 58%
- Clean sheet
- 30% – 19%1. FC Köln–Union Berlin
- Half-time result
- X · 40%1 36% · 2 24%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 29%X/1 16% · X/X 15%
- Expected corners
- 10.15.5 – 4.6 · Over 9.5: 55%
- Expected cards
- 4.51.9 – 2.6 · Over 3.5: 64%
- Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 2-19%
- 1-09%
- 2-08%
- 1-27%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards 1. FC Köln
- Power ratings: 1. FC Köln +0.34 goals per game (178th of 420 in Europe), Union Berlin +0.17 (221st).
- 1. FC Köln's attack (1.67 goals per game) meets Union Berlin's defence (1.28 conceded per game).
- Union Berlin's attack (1.45) meets 1. FC Köln's defence (1.33).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 25% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.68 – 1.21 goals: 1. FC Köln 48%, draw 25%, Union Berlin 27%.
Chance to score
1. FC Köln
- Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson3 goals in 7 games28%
- S. El Mala2 goals in 6 games21%
- L. Maina1 goals in 7 games10%
Union Berlin
- L. Querfeld1 goals in 4 games13%
- Z. Van Den Bosch1 goals in 6 games10%
- E. Latte Lath1 goals in 6 games9%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Both teams scored in 6 of 1. FC Köln’s last 8 matches.
Season stats
| · | 1. FC Köln | Union Berlin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-3 | 2-2-0 | 1-3-3 | 0-1-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.14 | 1.50 | 0.86 | 0.33 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.00 | 2.57 | 4.00 |
| xG per game | 1.61 | 1.55 | 1.10 | 0.66 |
| xG against per game | 1.65 | 1.21 | 2.01 | 2.91 |
| Scored in | 71% | 75% | 57% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 25% | 29% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 29% | 25% | 43% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 75% | 43% | 33% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 75% | 71% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 50% | 57% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 25% | 57% | 67% |
| Shots per game | 15.9 | 16.5 | 11.9 | 4.7 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.0 |
| Shots on target | 33% | 36% | 33% | 21% |
| Possession | 50% | 50% | 42% | 33% |
| Passes per game | 435.4 | 436.0 | 353.9 | 313.7 |
| Pass accuracy | 82% | 82% | 73% | – |
| Corners per game | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| Corners against per game | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 8.3 |
| Cards per game | 1.9 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Fouls per game | 10.7 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 10.0 |
League matches this season (Bundesliga). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
1. FC Köln
- 0-151 / 0
- 16-301 / 1
- 31-450 / 3
- 46-601 / 2
- 61-752 / 3
- 76-90+2 / 3
Usual formation: 4-3-3
Union Berlin
- 0-151 / 3
- 16-300 / 3
- 31-450 / 2
- 46-600 / 3
- 61-750 / 4
- 76-90+4 / 2
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Next matches
1. FC Köln
- Sun 1 NovUnion Berlin – 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- Sun 8 Nov1. FC Köln – Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- Fri 20 NovBayern München – 1. FC KölnBundesliga
Union Berlin
- Sun 1 NovUnion Berlin – 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- Sun 8 NovSC Freiburg – Union BerlinBundesliga
- Sat 21 NovUnion Berlin – RB LeipzigBundesliga
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
1. FC Köln 1 wins · 3 draws · Union Berlin 6 wins
- 02/05/2026Union Berlin2-21. FC KölnBundesliga
- 20/12/20251. FC Köln0-1Union BerlinBundesliga
- 11/05/20241. FC Köln3-2Union BerlinBundesliga
- 20/12/2023Union Berlin2-01. FC KölnBundesliga
- 04/03/2023Union Berlin0-01. FC KölnBundesliga
- 11/09/20221. FC Köln0-1Union BerlinBundesliga
- 01/04/2022Union Berlin1-01. FC KölnBundesliga
- 07/11/20211. FC Köln2-2Union BerlinBundesliga
- 13/03/2021Union Berlin2-11. FC KölnBundesliga
- 22/11/20201. FC Köln1-2Union BerlinBundesliga
Match facts
Last matches · 1. FC Köln
- D Sat 24 Oct H FC Schalke 04 0-0
- L Fri 16 Oct A Eintracht Frankfurt 0-1
- W Sun 11 Oct H Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1
- L Sat 19 Sept A Hamburger SV 1-2
- D Sat 12 Sept H Werder Bremen 1-1
- L Fri 4 Sept A VfB Stuttgart 1-4
Last matches · Union Berlin
- D Sat 24 Oct A FC Augsburg 1-1
- D Sat 17 Oct H Borussia Dortmund 0-0
- W Sat 10 Oct H SV Elversberg 1-0
- L Fri 18 Sept A Bayern München 0-7
- L Fri 11 Sept H FC Schalke 04 1-3
- L Sat 5 Sept A Bayer Leverkusen 0-4
Last 10 matches
| · | 1. FC Köln | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Conceded | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Points per game | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams score | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% |
Home and away record
| · | 1. FC Köln (H) | Union Berlin (A) |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Conceded | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Points per game | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams score | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% |
Home team: last 10 home games. Away team: last 10 away games.
Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.