Al-Faisaly vs Al-Nassr: Can the Underdogs Stop the Momentum?

Seven wins from nine league games is a record that makes Al-Nassr the clear favourites for Friday’s trip to Madimaa, and it sits in sharp contrast with Al-Faisaly’s campaign: one win so far, and 14th of 18 in the Pro League.

Context and stakes

Al-Nassr sit third on 22 points with a goal difference of +13, and their strength has travelled well. Al-Faisaly have seven points and a goal difference of -7, so every home game at Al Majma’a Sport City matters if they want to stay in touch with the sides above them. For the hosts, the challenge is to turn a ground where they have been hard to beat into a platform for a result against one of the league’s most potent attacks.

Form: two very different trajectories

Al-Nassr’s season form reads WWWWLWDWW, and they have scored 20 goals in nine games. Their last five have produced eight goals scored and four conceded, with four clean sheets over the campaign.

Al-Faisaly’s season has been more difficult, with the sequence LLDLDDLWD. They have scored 10 times in nine matches, and their last five have brought six goals for and seven against. Perhaps the most telling figure is that half of their 17 conceded goals have arrived between the 16th and 30th minutes. Surviving that early spell will be central to their hopes.

Head-to-head

Al-Nassr have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning three of the last five. Their most recent meeting, a 4-0 win in January 2022, was the most emphatic, and they have scored 12 goals across the five games. Al-Faisaly have scored eight, with their two victories coming in a 2-1 home win in August 2021 and a 1-0 King’s Cup triumph in April 2021.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model favours Al-Nassr, and the football explanation is straightforward: they carry far more threat in front of goal, while Al-Faisaly’s defensive problems, especially in the early stages of matches, leave them exposed. Al-Faisaly have the energy to make the first half a fight, but Al-Nassr’s quality should tell as the game opens up. Expect a fairly open contest in which the visitors edge the key moments.

Al-Faisaly FC 0-2 Al-Nassr